NFL Betting Trends to Know for Week 18: Can Packers Continue Late-Season Dominance?

Top NFL betting trends for Week 18 of the 2022-23 regular season.
Mike Spector
Mike Spector

Last updated: January 8, 2023 8:21 AM EST • 3 min read

Just three weeks ago, the Green Bay Packers were given +650 odds to make the playoffs. With a win over the Detroit Lions in Week 18, the Packers can clinch a playoff spot. We dive into that and more in our Week 18 trends to know in the NFL. 

One of the most significant challenges for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends tied to each game and determine the relevance or impact on the contest at hand. For example, head-to-head data between two teams dating back to the 1970s offer little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.

Here are our top NFL trends to know for Week 18 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Check out our NFL against-the-spread pick power rankings for Week 18, and our odds and lines.

Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 18

Packers (-215) vs. Lions

The Green Bay Packers are 18-1 straight up during the regular season in December and January under head coach Matt LaFleur.

Green Bay has been dominant when closing out the regular season over the last several years. The Packers own the second-longest winning streak in December (14), which trails only the Chargers’ 18 straight wins during that month from 2006 to 2009. The .947 winning percentage in December and January for LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers is the highest from any head coach-quarterback duo since 1950. The Packers are one win away from cashing their -450 preseason odds to make the playoffs, though that seemed like a lost cause when Green Bay started the season 3-6.

Green Bay is 53-31 against the spread when facing NFC North opponents during Aaron Rodgers' career, and the team is 15-8 ATS in divisional games over the last three campaigns. The Packers are 18-7 SU against Detroit under Rodgers, winning 10 of the 12 matchups at Lambeau Field.

Check out our top sports-betting sites for Michigan.

49ers (-675 ML, -13.5 spread) vs. Cardinals

The 49ers have won during each of quarterback Brock Purdy's first four NFL starts.

Purdy is the fifth rookie quarterback to win his first four career starts, and he's the first to do so since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. San Francisco’s hot stretch of nine consecutive wins is the franchise’s longest since 1997. The team can take the NFC’s No. 1 seed if it wins in Week 18 and the Eagles lose to the Giants.

The Arizona Cardinals are a great opponent for San Francisco to play in Week 18. The Cardinals are 20-8 ATS and 18-9-1 SU in Weeks 1-7 under Kliff Kingsbury. However, Arizona has faltered late in seasons under Kingsbury, going 14-22-2 ATS and 10-28 SU from Week 8 onward.

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Where are the underdog moneyline hits?

Underdogs are 28-76-1 over the past seven weeks.

Over the first 10 weeks of the season, underdog moneylines cashed at a 40.3% clip, and bettors that wagered $100 blindly on each underdog to win straight up would have earned $1,837 in profits.

However, after going 4-11 SU in Week 17, underdogs are winning straight up (27.1%) of the time since Week 11. Bettors would be down $3,738 when betting $100 on each moneyline underdog. Entering Week 17, that winning percentage for moneyline underdogs was the second-lowest over a six-game span in the previous 20 seasons.

Here are our Best NFL Betting Sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”