NFL Betting Trends That Matter: Week 1 Spread, Moneyline & O/U Notes

The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles kicked off Week 1 with a bang, and my NFL betting trends analyze the remainder of the weekend's prime-time slate from a statistical standpoint.

My NFL picks for the four remaining marquee matchups are based on these key trends. Week 1 of the 2025-26 NFL campaign continues tonight with the Kansas City Chiefs squaring off against the Los Angeles Chargers tonight in Brazil.

We offer more analysis on these season-opening showdowns in our NFL predictions for Week 1, including expert picks.

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🏈 Chiefs vs. Chargers preview

📈 Chiefs vs. Chargers betting trends

• Kansas City has won the last seven against Los Angeles dating back to December 2021
• Patrick Mahomes is 10-2 SU against the Chargers in his career; Justin Herbert is 2-7 SU versus the Chiefs
• The Chiefs are 3-6-1 ATS against the Chargers, with Jim Harbaugh's men going 1-0-1 in 2024
• Every matchup between these AFC West foes has gone Under across the last two seasons
• Kansas City and Los Angeles have gone Under at a 70% clip over their previous 10 meetings

📊 Chiefs vs. Chargers odds

🔮 Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction

Points have been hard to come by in this matchup over the past couple of campaigns. Chiefs versus Chargers contests have gone Under at an 80% clip over their last five meetings, including the last four. Only one game has seen a combined 40-plus points, with the teams failing to reach 30 on numerous occasions.

Los Angeles has proven to be a tricky opponent for Kansas City since Harbaugh's arrival, but I don't feel comfortable taking the hosts with the points, not even with the hook. This rivalry has been decided by one score three straight times, however, it's not every day you match up with Mahomes coming off an embarrassing Super Bowl defeat.

I think Kansas City will come out with a point to prove, so I'll play it safe and bet on the total trend to continue.

Pearson also weighs in with his Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction.  

✅ Best bet: Under 47.5 points (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

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🏈 Lions vs. Packers preview

📈 Lions vs. Packers betting trends

• Detroit has beaten Green Bay in six of 10 games over the last five seasons
• The Lions were 2-0 SU against the Packers in 2024, outscoring their division rivals 58-45
• Dan Campbell's men posted a 66.7% cover percentage last season, tied atop the league with Philadelphia
• Detroit is 6-3-1 ATS against Green Bay since 2020
• The Lions and Packers have gone Over at a 60% clip in the aforementioned span

📊 Lions vs. Packers odds

🔮 Lions vs. Packers prediction

Green Bay shook up the futures market with its blockbuster trade for All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons late last week. The superstar's acquisition moved this spread an entire point, which is music to my ears as a bettor looking to back the visitors.

Detroit was the best ATS team in the NFL last season on the road, posting a 7-1 record away from Ford Field. The Lions have not only won in their last three trips to Lambeau Field, but they've also covered, with an average winning margin of 9.33 points per game.

I'll be the first to admit, the addition of Parsons adds a new wrinkle to this game that a Detroit team replacing two coordinators may not be prepared for. However, as this play creeps closer to even money, I'll continue to put my faith in Campbell as a road underdog until the vivacious head coach wrongs me.

It helps that Jared Goff is a calming presence in crunch time, as Pearson highlighted in his latest NFL clutch rankings.

✅ Best bet: Lions +2.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐️⭐️⭐️

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🏈 Ravens vs. Bills preview

📈 Ravens vs. Bills betting trends

• Baltimore is 6-4 SU in its last 10 against Buffalo
• Lamar Jackson is 53-30 against AFC teams in his career
• The Ravens are 4-2-1 ATS against the Bills dating back to 2017
• Baltimore and Buffalo combined to go 23-15-1 ATS last season
• The Bills' 27-25 win in January snapped a four-game Under streak between the teams. Mike Spector thinks the Over, in his Ravens vs. Bills prediction, will hit again

📊 Ravens vs. Bills odds

🔮 Ravens vs. Bills prediction

These two teams played out an instant classic just eight months ago, with Josh Allen's Buffalo team emerging from the rubble as 27-25 winners. Harbaugh has let those feelings brew all offseason, so it's safe to say his Baltimore team has had this game circled on its calendar for quite a while.

Luckily for the visitors, Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the league as it relates to having his teams prepared for Week 1. The long-time Ravens frontman is 12-5 ATS in opening games during his near two decades in Baltimore.

Furthermore, Lamar Jackson, the MVP odds favorite, is the league's second-best quarterback in underdog spots. His 80% cover rate as an underdog trails only Patrick Mahomes (83.3%) among all 32 starters. I'll take the Ravens and the points to open the 2025-26 campaign.

✅ Best bet: Ravens +1.5 (-118 via DraftKings) ⭐️⭐️⭐️

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🏈 Vikings vs. Bears preview

📈 Vikings vs. Bears betting trends

• Minnesota has taken eight out of the last 10 SU, improving to 68–58–2 all-time against Chicago
• The Bears are 3-6-1 ATS over the Vikings in the same span
• Kevin O'Connell's men posted an 11-6-1 ATS record in 2024, among the NFL's best tallies
• Chicago and Minnesota combined to go 21-14 to the Under last season
• The Under has hit at a 60% clip in this NFC North rivalry dating back to 2020, which Pearson discusses in his Vikings vs. Bears prediction

📊 Vikings vs. Bears odds

🔮 Vikings vs. Bears prediction

There is perhaps no harder game to predict in the entire NFL Week 1 slate. Both franchises have undergone massive changes in the offseason, with Minnesota prepared to trot out a new starting quarterback (J.J. McCarthy) and Chicago under a new regime (Ben Johnson) in 2025.

I'm a big believer in consistency, and aside from the quarterback position, the organizational consistency in Minnesota is something I believe will translate better into this campaign. The Vikings were one of the league's best cover teams in 2024, and Caleb Williams has struggled ATS as an underdog (5-6).

Johnson cracked the Minnesota code on multiple occasions last season, but I think it's too soon for him to get the same efficiency out of an inexperienced Bears side. I like the Vikings as road favorites, especially at FanDuel's favorable price.

✅ Best bet: Vikings -1.5 (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐️⭐️

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🌧️ NFL Week 2 weather notes

It's early September and still summer, but weather could nonetheless play a role in a few games this week. Our Liam Fox took a deeper dive in his NFL weather report for Week 1.

In the Panthers-Jaguars contest, the blazing Florida sun is projected to put the temperature at 91 degrees, which will immediately test the conditioning levels of everyone on the field

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💡 NFL expert picks for Week 1

• NFL picks against the spread Week 1
• NFL QB clutch player ratings Week 1
• NFL fantasy pickup player props Week 1
• NFL rookie player props Week 1
• NFL trends that matter Week 1
• NFL weather report Week 1
• NFL survivor picks Week 1
• NFL upset picks Week 1
• NFL betting guide: How to bet Week 1 on a $100 budget
• NFL long-shot parlay Week 1
• NFL live betting guide Week 1
• NFL moneyline picks Week 1
• NFL AI predictions Week 1
• NFL player props Week 1
• NFL Watchability Index Week 1

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❓ NFL trends FAQs

What are the best NFL trends for Week 1?

My favorite trend to take advantage of during Week 1 of the NFL season involves the Chargers and Chiefs. The AFC West rivals have played out games that've gone Under at an 80% clip since Justin Herbert entered the league. As such, I like that game to be a defensive battle throughout.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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