NFL MVP Odds | Can Matthew Stafford Catch Betting Favorite Drake Maye in Week 18?
In a race defined by twists and turns over the last month, Drake Maye enters Week 18 as the betting favorite by the latest NFL MVP odds after a meltdown by Matthew Stafford on Monday Night Football to lose his grip on the award.
Stafford entered last week as the prohibitive favorite to win his first MVP trophy amid a historic year for the Los Angeles Rams, but a disastrous showing against the Atlanta Falcons opened the door for Maye, who threw five touchdowns on Sunday to keep pace in this race. If he wins, he'd become the youngest MVP since a 22-year-old Lamar Jackson took the plaudits in 2019.
📊 Live NFL MVP odds entering Week 18
Latest NFL odds updated live in real time from our best NFL betting sites.
🐏 Stafford slips up in Week 17
Stafford threw three picks for the first time since Week 1 of the 2022 season. He was the -230 MVP odds favorite entering MNF against the Falcons, but his odds have since decreased to +230 at FanDuel. The 37-year-old had only thrown five picks in the previous 16 games.
Stafford showed his MVP pedigree in helping the Los Angeles Rams overturn a 21-point halftime deficit. However, the comeback bid fell short.
While Stafford's performance was inarguably substandard, he didn't get any help from stand-in left tackle D.J. Humphries, whose historically poor performance hampered substantially the Rams' chances of winning. And with it, negatively impacted Stafford's MVP odds.
The rusty, and quite frankly, out-of-place left tackle committed two costly penalties, one of which negated a bomb of a TD from Stafford to Puka Nacua.
Stafford, who entered the game with a 69.70% probability to win his first MVP, now has a roughly 30% chance of winning the award. He will face the Arizona Cardinals at home to culminate the season.
Meanwhile, the sophomore gunslinger, who we spotlighted in Maye makes an MVP statement after he thrashed the New York Jets on Sunday, will be up against the Miami Dolphins at home as the New England Patriots vie the AFC's No. 1 seed entering the playoffs.
Matthew Stafford MVP odds
NFL MVP odds as of Dec. 30 from our NFL prop betting sites.
| Sportsbook | Odds | Profit on $10 | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +300 | $30 | 25% |
| FanDuel | +230 | $23 | 30.30% |
| BetMGM | +325 | $32.50 | 23.53% |
| Caesars | +270 | $27 | 27.03% |
| bet365 | +300 | $30 | 25% |
🪖 Maye seizes window for MVP race
Even in the midst of a spectacular season for the Patriots, Maye entered last week as a clear long shot to win MVP in his second season after a Week 15 loss to the Buffalo Bills momentarily derailed his candidacy.
But the sophomore star came back with a vengeance over the last two weeks, leading a late comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 before last week's five-touchdown effort against the Jets - with four of them coming in a nearly flawless first half. That moved his odds closer to Stafford's entering Monday, when the latter coughed up his chances at this award with those three first-half turnovers.
This race isn't technically over, but with the Patriots playing the lowly Dolphins next week and both New England and Los Angeles in position to potentially rest starters in the regular-season finale, it'll be tough for Maye to lose his grip on the award this time around.
Drake Maye MVP odds
| Sportsbook | Odds | Profit on $10 | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -400 | $2.50 | 80% |
| FanDuel | -290 | $4 | 71.43% |
| BetMGM | -500 | $2 | 83.33% |
| Caesars | -360 | $2.78 | 78.26% |
| bet365 | -400 | $2.50 | 80% |
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