NFL MVP Odds Entering Week 18 | Maye the Heavy Favorite After Stafford Stumbles
Drake Maye is the new prohib MVP odds favorite after Matthew Stafford endured a nightmare first half on Monday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons.
Stafford's three-pick performance in the 24-21 loss has significantly impacted the NFL MVP odds entering Week 18, with Drake Maye's win probability increasing from 33.33% to 85.71%.
While Maye backers won't be counting their chickens yet, they will be euphoric after witnessing Stafford stumble severely. Maye is now in a position to become the youngest MVP since a 22-year-old Lamar Jackson took the plaudits in 2019. The analysis below complements the NFL predictions for Week 18.
📊 Live NFL MVP odds
Latest NFL odds updated live in real time from our best NFL betting sites.
🎥 Stafford slips up in Week 17
Stafford threw three picks for the first time since Week 1 of the 2022 season. He was the -230 MVP odds favorite entering MNF against the Falcons, but his odds have since decreased to +500 at FanDuel. The 37-year-old had only thrown five picks in the previous 16 games.
Stafford showed his MVP pedigree in helping the Los Angeles Rams overturn a 21-point halftime deficit. However, the comeback bid fell short.
While Stafford's performance was inarguably substandard, he didn't get any help from stand-in left tackle D.J. Humphries, whose historically poor performance hampered substantially the Rams' chances of winning. And with it, negatively impacted Stafford's MVP odds.
The rusty, and quite frankly, out-of-place left tackle committed two costly penalties, one of which negated a bomb of a TD from Stafford to Puka Nacua.
Stafford, who entered the game with a 69.70% probability to win his first MVP, now has a 16.95% likelihood of winning. He will face the Arizona Cardinals at home to culminate the season.
Meanwhile, the sophomore gunslinger, who we spotlighted in Maye makes an MVP statement after he thrashed the New York Jets on Sunday, will be up against the Miami Dolphins at home as the New England Patriots vie the AFC's No. 1 seed entering the playoffs.
🏆 Matthew Stafford MVP odds
NFL MVP odds as of Dec. 29 from our NFL prop betting sites.
| Sportsbook | Odds | Profit on $10 | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +500 | $50 | 16.67% |
| Caesars | +300 | $30 | 25% |
| bet365 | +400 | $40 | 20% |
| DraftKings | +300 | $30 | 25% |
🏆 Drake Maye MVP odds
| Sportsbook | Odds | Profit on $10 | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -600 | $2 | 85.71% |
| Caesars | -400 | $2.50 | 80% |
| bet365 | -714 | $1.40 | 87.71% |
| DraftKings | -400 | $2.50 | 80% |
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