NFL MVP Odds at Thanksgiving: Stafford, Maye the Runaway Favorites Entering Week 13

Thanksgiving not only provides the best day of the year to indulge, but also to take stock of which NFL MVP odds favorites are the most likely to capture the most high-profile individual accolade. 

If the award were handed out today, it would likely go to Matthew Stafford. The 37-year-old has a 67% chance of winning MVP for the first time in his illustrious 17-year career, according to his -200 MVP odds. The old guard faces a stern challenge in sophomore Drake Maye. As we move into the most festive time of the year, are there any other strong contenders? The analysis below complements our NFL predictions for Week 13. 

📊 Live NFL MVP odds 2025

Latest NFL MVP odds for the 2025 season; NFL odds update in real time.

🐏 NFL MVP favorite: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams (-200)

Thanksgiving is a time to indulge in food, drink, and most importantly, football. It's also an opportune time to take stock of just how exceptional Stafford has been in leading his Super Bowl odds favorite Los Angeles Rams to the top of the NFC standings. 

Here are just a few of Stafford's highlights through the season's first 12 weeks: 

• 30 TD passes, seven more than second-place Dak Prescott and Jared Goff
• Two interceptions, the second-fewest for QBs with at least 11 starts (Jalen Hurts, 1)
• He has 25 TD passes and no interceptions in the last eight games
• He has thrown 27 TD passes since his last pick, which occurred in Week 3 against the Philadelphia Eagles
• He became the only QB with 4+ passing TDs and no picks in 3 straight games

While Stafford has been as close to immaculate as you can get in the previous six weeks, he doesn't have a ton of margin for error considering how well Maye is playing. 

While Maye is persistently hounding the veteran, a precipitous drop-off exists beyond that pair. No other player's probability of winning exceeds 5%. Stafford's -200 odds, the best value offered at the best sports betting sites, would yield a $5 profit on a winning $10 bet. 

🦬 Best MVP long shot: Josh Allen, QB, Bills (+2500)

A lot has to happen for Josh Allen to ascend the MVP odds leaderboard and challenge the two front-runners. But if anyone can do it, the reigning MVP winner can.

Allen has turned the ball over too much, with pre-MVP Allen rearing its ugly head. He has thrown five picks in the previous three games, one fewer than the entirety of last season. However, Allen is arguably the only quarterback who can make seismic gains on the leaderboard with a single epic performance. 

As the only quarterback to score six touchdowns twice, he's no stranger to pulling off such feats. His +2500 odds represent a 3.85% probability of winning. If you back him and he wins his second straight MVP, you'll earn $250 on a $10 bet. 

❓ NFL MVP FAQs

Who is favored to win NFL MVP?

Matthew Stafford is the betting favorite by the latest NFL MVP odds, with his -200 odds representing an implied win probability of 66.67%.

When will the 2025-26 NFL MVP be announced?

The 2025-26 NFL MVP will likely be announced on the Thursday ahead of the 2026 Super Bowl at NFL Honors.

Who was the NFL MVP last year?

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen was crowned the NFL MVP for the first time after closing as the betting favorite in the regular season.

How to bet on NFL MVP?

Your first port of call is to sign up for one of the best sports betting apps.