NFL MVP Odds After Week 4: Allen Leads as Mahomes Climbs; Jackson Falls After Injury

Josh Allen did what he needed to in the Buffalo Bills' 31-19 win over the New Orleans to remain atop the MVP odds leaderboard nearing the end of Week 4.

Main rival Lamar Jackson left early against the Kansas City Chiefs after reportedly injuring his hamstring, dropping the MVP odds significantly for the Baltimore Ravens star. (The severity of his injury is still unknown.)

Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes threw four TD passes for the first time in two years, helping him ascend the MVP odds ladder and boosting the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds after a 37-20 win over the Ravens.

Which of the other quarterbacks had notable Week 4 NFL performances, and who should you back as part of your NFL picks?

📊 Live NFL MVP odds 2025

Latest NFL MVP odds for the 2025 season; NFL odds update in real time.

🔴 Patrick Mahomes back among MVP odds favorites

As if you needed a reminder of Mahomes' MVP credentials, the Chiefs QB made another statement in his long line of statements. Thrashing Jackson and the Ravens at home, Mahomes saw his odds at FanDuel improve from +2500 to +1200. 

It was the first time Mahomes has thrown four TD passes since October 2023 against the Los Angeles Chargers. He also had 270 passing yards, completing 25 of 36 passes in the 17-point win over a team previously among the Super Bowl favorites.

The two-time MVP winner also became the youngest QB to hit 250 TD passes. And just like that, Mahomes is receiving the fourth-shortest MVP odds. 

You can still secure +2200 odds at one of the best sports betting apps, but that price won't last. With two wins in a row, he has his Chiefs just a game behind the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West after Jim Harbaugh's team fell to the New York Giants.

🦁 Jared Goff gets job done against elite Browns defense

While it wasn't a showy, glitzy, or glamorous performance by Goff, it was incredibly effective.

The Lions' MVP odds contender rose on the leaderboard for the second consecutive week, this time easily seeing off a Browns team that had the third-best defensive DVOA entering Week 4. 

Goff finished with two TD passes, an interception, and just 167 passing yards. It's not the type of performance that MVP voters will remember, but it has kept the 30-year-old amongst the lead pack. 

At FanDuel, Goff has the sixth-shortest odds (+2000), which imply a 4.76% win probability. bet365 is the outlier, offering +3300, the best value of the best sports betting sites.

🦅 Another quietly efficient performance from Jalen Hurts

Hurts quietly goes about his business, efficiently and unassumingly. The Super Bowl MVP has reeled off 18 straight victories. That tells you all you need to know about the Eagles' signal caller.

He again went about his work in a business-like way, throwing two TD passes while accumulating only 130 passing yards in a 31-25 win over the Bucs. He made up for a sparse return in the air by running for 62 yards, making some key plays with his feet.

Hurts is arguably the best game manager in the NFL, and there are few, if any, you'd rather have under center with the contest on the line. Unlike last week, it didn't come down to any fourth-quarter heroics as the Eagles built a 24-6 lead entering halftime and held off a rally late behind a stout defensive effort.

Hurts' MVP odds sit at +1500 at FanDuel, which implies a 6.25% win probability. If you think the humble quarterback has what it takes to win MVP, you probably won't get better odds.

He's a decided outsider against Allen and Jackson, but he continually does what is required to get his team across the line.

🏆 NFL MVP odds favorite

🦬 Josh Allen, Bills (+150)

Allen was picked off for the first time this season. That moment didn't deter the MVP odds favorite, though, as he finished with three TDs (two passing, one rushing) on 16-for-22 passing and 45 yards on the ground.  

While the Bills didn't cover the massive 16.5-point betting spread, the game never felt in doubt with Allen under center. Even when the New Orleans Saints pulled within four points, Allen exudes confidence and an unrivaled calmness in the pocket.

Time seems to slow to a crawl for the reigning MVP winner, who has eight TDs and one pick through four undefeated games. The value continuously seeps from his MVP odds, with the current +150 at DraftKings implying a 40% win probability. Those odd improved from +190 to +150 after news of Jackson's injury broke. 

A winning $10 bet will yield a $15 profit. 

🎯 Best long-shot bets to win MVP

Our NFL player prop odds features the latest MVP odds for every player and updates live in real time.

🐏 Matthew Stafford (+1500)

Matthew Stafford's odds improved from +3000 to +1500 at FanDuel thanks to another fourth-quarter comeback victory, this time over the previously undefeated Indianapolis Colts. If his back holds up, he's a solid outsider for MVP. 

🧀 Jordan Love (+1600)

Jordan Love struggled last week against a Cleveland Browns team with the third-best defensive DVOA entering Week 4. How will he fare on SNF against the Dallas Cowboys? 

⛵️ Baker Mayfield (+2500)

Mayfield was the fourth-most clutch QB entering Week 4, and he had a chance to pull off a fourth straight fourth-quarter comeback. This time, however, his throw into the end zone was picked off by Jihaad Campbell. Mayfield didn't get another shot at the end zone as the Eagles' defense piled the pressure on. 

He still offers an excellent outsider bet despite the loss. There's no shame in losing to the reigning Super Bowl champions, especially with the number of injuries the Buccaneers have suffered to key offensive line personnel.

In addition, Mike Evans didn't play in Week 4, and Chris Godwin returned to action for the first time in almost a year. 

🐴 Daniel Jones (+4000)

Daniel Jones is gradually climbing the MVP odds ladder, with his odds improving from +8000 to +4000 despite losing on the road to the Rams. At some point, I feel the bubble will burst with Jones. Even if it remains intact, I wouldn't take a flier on him.

❓ NFL MVP FAQs

Who is the favorite to win NFL MVP?

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen is the MVP odds favorite (+150). Those odds represent an implied probability of 40%, according to our odds converter.

When will the 2025-26 NFL MVP be announced?

The 2025-26 NFL MVP will likely be announced on the Thursday ahead of the 2026 Super Bowl at NFL Honors.

Who was the NFL MVP last year?

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen was crowned the NFL MVP for the first time after closing as the betting favorite in the regular season.

Who was the last back-to-back MVP winner?

Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021.