Matthew Stafford MVP Odds Entering Week 16: Can Anyone Overtake Rams QB for Award?

I'm breaking down Matthew Stafford's MVP odds, as the Los Angeles Rams quarterback has the shortest odds to win the award entering the regular season's final three weeks.

Stafford has never looked so good. His accuracy, poise, control, and decision-making are seemingly unflappable. Those attributes, along with countless others, have him within reach of his first MVP award. His biggest remaining challenge awaits tonight at Lumen Field in Seattle for Thursday Night Football, which I covered in the Rams vs. Seahawks prediction. So, the question remains: Can anyone prevent him from winning the coveted prize? 

📊 Live NFL MVP odds 2025

See all of our experts' NFL picks for every game based on the latest NFL odds.

🐏 What TNF against Seahawks means for Stafford's MVP chances? 

Last week, our C Jackson Cowart encapsulated perfectly how iron-clad Stafford's MVP case is in his piece about why Stafford will win MVP. 

That article has aged well, as Stafford is now even more likely to be named the league's MVP, with his odds at the best sports betting sites ranging from  -260 to -303. Those odds imply a 72% to 75% chance of winning. 

The Seahawks on Thursday Night Football, part of the NFL predictions for Week 16, represent the only remaining impediment as he faces the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals to wrap things up.

If they beat the Seahawks and Falcons, you can rest assured Stafford won't play in the season finale as they will have already clinched the NFC's No. 1 seed. If he beats the Seahawks in Seattle, you can pretty much place the trophy in Stafford's hands. 

The landscape could shift if the Seahawks beat the Rams while frustrating Stafford like they did in the second half of the Week 11 showdown. However, it's likely the 37-year-old has already distanced himself enough from Drake Maye and Josh Allen.

📈 Matthew Stafford MVP odds

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🪖 What must Drake Maye do to win MVP?

Make no mistake, Maye's 2025 MVP resume is markedly more impressive than Allen's. But his one misstep, occurring against the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, could ultimately represent his downfall in this race.

That shows just how unforgiving this race is, thanks to Stafford's almost unblemished season. Due to the headway Maye made beforehand, there is a potential path for him to become one of the youngest players to win the award. 

Because remember, he was, before Stafford beat up on the Arizona Cardinals, the MVP odds favorite a few weeks ago. If Stafford plays poorly in Seattle and loses, and Maye enjoys another epic outing while upsetting the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, the race will be back on. 

Admittedly, several variables must occur for that to happen, but I peg his chances of winning MVP slightly higher than the 19% his +425 odds at DraftKings imply. 

🦬 Can Josh Allen win MVP? 

Yes, he can, absolutely. But will he?

Allen has simply been too inconsistent to compete with Stafford's almost unerring brilliance. His +600 odds at FanDuel represent a 14.29% proability. 

Nobody can argue that Allen is the NFL's one-of-a-kind unicorn under center. He does things nobody else can, including Lamar Jackson. That point is best demonstrated by the fact that he is the only quarterback to score 6 TDs in a game twice. 

He was sublime in Weeks 15 and 16, delivering near-perfect performances when his team needed it most. Against Cincy and New England, he scored seven TDs (six passing, one rushing) and orchestrated a historic comeback in Foxborough. 

Unfortunately for Allen backers, he endured a few stinkers, most notably in Miami against a subpar Dolphins team. Devoid of a catastrophic collapse from Stafford, Allen has left it too late.