NFL Long Shot Parlay: Best SGP, Moneyline Picks for Wild Card Weekend

My Wild Card Weekend long-shot parlay has two parts: one could yield a $320 profit on a $10 bet, and the other predicts each straight-up outcome, offering potential winnings of $251.50.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass as we break down our Wild Card Round long shot parlay.
Pictured: Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass as we break down our Wild Card Round long shot parlay. Photo by Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
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Let's get into my NFL long-shot parlay, which features a five-leg play for Wild Card Weekend. 

In the first parlay, I chose a bet from five of six Wild Card Weekend games, which will profit $320.60 on a winning $10 bet. For the second parlay, I've provided a moneyline prediction for every game, which carries odds of 2514. These picks and analyses are part of the NFL playoff predictions and wild-card matchups.


🎯 My best Wild Card Weekend long shot parlay

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this postseason.

💵 Wild Card Weekend long-shot parlay

  • Bills vs. Jaguars: Bills -1 (-110)
  • Chargers vs. Patriots: Chargers ML (+166)
  • 49ers vs. Eagles: Jalen Hurts Over 30.5 rushing yards (-118)
  • Texans vs. Steelers: Kenneth Gainwell Over 30.5 receiving yards (-113)
  • Packers vs. Steelers: D'Andre Swift Over 57.5 rushing yards (-115)

Best odds: +3206 via BetMGM ($10 to win $320.60)


Trevor Lawrence has thrown five interceptions in two playoff games, while Josh Allen has won five straight wild card or divisional-round games. While I understand it's a team game, I'm putting my money on the former MVP and his Superman likeness. 

They say go big or go home. I'm certainly hoping the Los Angeles Chargers aren't going anywhere but the divisional round. I'm backing them to upset the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

Justin Herbert, one of the league's best regular-season QBs, is long overdue for a maiden playoff win, and he'll show that he's learned from previous failures. On the other hand, I'm expecting Drake Maye's inexperience to finally trip up the sensational sophomore. 

Jalen Hurts has rushed for at least 31 yards in seven of nine playoff games, including scampering for at least 70 yards in two of the previous three, including in the Super Bowl. 

Kenneth Gainwell is one of Aaron Rodgers' preferred targets, and he has at least 31 receiving yards in three of four games to end the season, including a 64-yard performance in the AFC North decider against Baltimore. 

With at least 58 rushing yards in four of the previous six games, I'm backing D'Andre Swift to hit the Over. The Packers have the 22nd-ranked defensive rush DVOA, and the cold weather should be conducive to a concerted effort on the ground from the home team. 


💡 More Wild Card Weekend predictions 

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game during Wild Card Weekend.


🚀 My best NFL moneyline parlay picks for Wild Card Weekend

The Rams are superior on both sides of the ball and are far more experienced in the playoffs. They also have the probable MVP and most clutch QB, according to our NFL playoff QB rankings

The Bears were excellent at Soldier Field, winning six of eight. Their only two defeats at home occurred in Weeks 1 and 18.

Despite being decimated by injuries early this season, the San Francisco 49ers finished with an impressive 7-2 road record. I expect them to keep it close in Philly, which I outlined in more detail in my Wild Card Weekend picks against the spread

I'm backing the Los Angeles Chargers to upset the New England Patriots, with Herbert proving the naysayers wrong and Maye finally proving that he is indeed human. 

Arguably the most confident and in-form team, the Houston Texans roll into Pittsburgh ready to demonstrate why its defense is touted so highly. I can't see the Steelers creating much against arguably the league's best defensive unit. 

Game  Prediction  Odds (FanDuel) Confidence 
Rams vs. Panthers  Rams  -700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Packers vs. Bears  Bears -102 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bills vs. Jaguars  Bills -110  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
49ers vs. Eagles  Eagles  -225 ⭐⭐⭐
Chargers vs. Patriots  Chargers  +166 ⭐⭐⭐
Texans vs. Steelers Texans -174 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Total odds: +2514 via FanDuel | $10 bet pays $251.50


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