NFL Live Betting Guide Week 4: In-Game Betting Tips for Top Matchups
My NFL live betting guide for Week 4 hones in on one or two of the most likely in-game scenarios for the marquee matchups, including prime-time games, the international series game in Dublin, Ireland, and a handful of other tasty tilts.
The live betting strategy complements our NFL picks and is part of the NFL predictions for Week 4.
📺 Vikings vs. Steelers live betting strategy: International series
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Croke Park (Dublin, Ireland)
- How to watch: NFL Network
The first international series game of the season, taking place in Dublin, comes with all the hallmarks of a defensive slugfest. With points likely at a premium, see if an opportunity presents itself to lock in a second-quarter combined or team Over.
The Pittsburgh Steelers score the second-most points of any team in the second quarter (8.3), while the Minnesota Vikings score the 10th-most (10.7).
If either or both teams start the quarter on the right foot, see what value you can get while backing the second-quarter Over.
📺 Eagles vs. Buccaneers live betting strategy
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
- How to watch: FOX
Baker Mayfield is among the five most clutch QBs due to his unrivaled fourth-quarter heroics. He boasts three fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives in as many contests this season. If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are trailing entering the fourth but it's close, get some extra value on the home team's spread or moneyline odds.
Jalen Hurts has tallied four rushing TDs in three games, scoring at least one each outing, though only one has occurred when the Philadelphia Eagles were in the lead. You'll be able to source increased value if he doesn't score in the early going.
📺 Chargers vs. Giants live betting strategy
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
- How to watch: CBS
I'm gung-ho on a fundamental in-game strategy for this one, which applies to any regular-season debut for fresh-faced quarterbacks.
With Jaxson Dart starting in his first meaningful professional game, find value wherever you can on betting against the G-Men in the first quarter or half.
The most obvious is an against-the-spread pick. The value will get even better if the Los Angeles Chargers fail to score on their first drive or two. Another viable option is backing the Giants' team Under in the opening 15 or 30 minutes. You might encounter more trouble finding value on that one, though.
DraftKings is listing the Chargers' first-quarter line at -0.5 (+100) and -3.5 for the half (-110). I like both of those picks.
📺 Bears vs. Raiders live betting strategy
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
- How to watch: FOX
I'm not sure what Ben Johnson does before the game to inspire his troops, but it's working. No team scores more than the Chicago Bears' 9.3-point average in the first quarter.
With the Raiders averaging 4.6 points per first quarter (tied for 16th), be on the lookout for value while backing the Bears against the spread in the opening 15 minutes. The Bears are currently at +0.5 (-166) for the first quarter at DraftKings. The first-quarter total is at 9.5 points, juiced at -110 for the Over and Under.
If the trend pans out, you'll get some sweet value on the in-game Over.
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📺 Ravens vs. Chiefs live betting strategy
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
- How to watch: CBS
I picked Baltimore to bounce back in my Ravens vs. Chiefs prediction. While a few key reasons contributed to that prediction, Lamar Jackson is front and center. Jackson threw two TD passes in 13 of his previous 14 regular-season games and at least three in four of the last seven.
However, he's tossed two-plus touchdown passes only once over his five regular-season games against the Chiefs. He's overdue for a breakout performance against Kansas City.
Look for value on Jackson's TD passing props, especially if he doesn't get one early, as seven of his nine TD passes this season came in the third or fourth quarters. FanDuel is setting his Over for 1.5 touchdowns at -132.
📺 Packers vs. Cowboys live betting strategy: SNF
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- How to watch: NBC
Micah Parsons returning to Dallas for a SNF tilt against his former team makes for compelling watching. It could also facilitate a quality live-betting scenario. Dak Prescott has been sacked five times in three games, and Parsons has recorded 1.5 sacks in limited snaps for his new team.
The quarterback terrorizer is gaining form, and he was featured in 51 snaps against the Cleveland Browns last week, his most thus far for the Green Bay Packers. He'll be plenty motivated in his old stomping ground and against his former team owner.
Keep an eye on his sacks prop and make the call when the value is optimal. Our Mike Spector provides a thorough analysis of the much-anticipated game in his Packers vs. Cowboys prediction.
📺 Jets vs. Dolphins live betting strategy: MNF
- Date: Monday, Sept. 29
- Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- How to watch: ESPN
While I expect a defensive battle, I'm targeting the third-quarter total. The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets combine for 4.3 points per third quarter through three weeks, with the former scoring the fifth fewest (two) and the latter the seventh fewest (2.3)
Monitor the third-quarter total, which currently stands at 12.5 points through FanDuel (-106 to the Under). If you see early signs of this trend continuing, back the Under decisively.
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📺 Bengals vs. Broncos live betting strategy: MNF
- Date: Monday, Sept. 29
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
- How to watch: ESPN
The Denver Broncos have tallied just one pick in three games. However, they were tied for the eighth most last season (15) and get a favorable matchup against Jake Browning now.
The Cincinnati Bengals' de facto starter has thrown five picks, the most in the NFL, in less than two games.
He's good for at least one, probably two, against a ball-hawking Broncos' secondary in Denver. If the game enters the second half and Browning has avoided tossing a pick, grab yourself some extra value, as an INT is likely on the way.
💡 NFL live betting strategy
Live betting is all about getting a feel for the game as you watch. Trust your gut and the on-field play, and make the call before the value seeps away. Alternative totals are an excellent way to optimize profits. If you see something develop, trust yourself and commit.
Don't overcommit, though. Sometimes, patience is the name of the game.
Check back each week for our live betting strategy, which will be jam-packed with real-life live betting examples from previous weeks, helping to inform subsequent live betting opportunities.
❓ NFL live betting FAQs
How do you live bet the NFL?
Head to one of the best live betting sites, click on the NFL, and find the game you're interested in. It will have live betting options once you click on that game. Sportsbooks will also have a live betting section.
What can you bet on live in the NFL?
You can live bet on a variety of markets, including moneyline, spread betting, next team to score, Over/Under, player props such as next touchdown, and countless others.
Is it profitable to live bet the NFL?
Live betting can be profitable if you take advantage of odds when the value is high. You can make calculated decisions during TV timeouts and between plays. Watching a game and getting a feel for it is a beneficial way to stay informed, which can lead to sound decisions. It also helps to negate the sportsbooks' inherent advantage when setting odds and betting lines.
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