NFL Live Betting Guide Week 1: Stats and Trends to Know for In-Game Bets

What's better than watching NFL prime-time games? Watching them while live betting. My NFL live betting guide, part of the NFL picks, offers advice on what to look out for during Week 1's remaining prime-time games. 

The weekly series will dive into the trends, provide live betting examples, and highlight the best teams and players to buy or fade based on the in-game scenario. 

These picks complement the NFL predictions for Week 1.

📺 Chiefs vs. Chargers live betting strategy: NFL Brazil

• Date: Friday, Sept. 5
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Arena Corinthians (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
• How to watch: YouTube

According to Gabe Henderson's NFL betting trends that matter, the Under cashed in seven of the past 10 meetings between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers.

So, even if points are scored early, you might want to restrain and back the Under in-game when the odds offer more value. I backed the under in my Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction, so I'll be looking for that very scenario. 

And here are some live betting tips based on 2024 trends: 

• Patrick Mahomes is the most clutch quarterback in the NFL, which the Chargers know firsthand. Mahomes conjured two game-winning drives and a fourth-quarter comeback last season against Jim Harbaugh's team. If the Chiefs are down by a score or less entering the fourth quarter, you know what to do
• Look for the Chiefs to hit pay dirt in the second quarter. It was their highest-scoring quarter (8.1 points, tied for 8th), with Mahomes tossing 12 of his 26 TD passes
• The Chargers started well, scoring an average of 8.1 points in the first quarter, tied for the eighth most

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📺 Ravens vs. Bills live betting strategy: SNF

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 7
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• How to watch: NBC

Last season's top two quarterbacks face off, and there are a few interesting trends from 2024 you should look out for:   

• If the Ravens are up by a few points entering the fourth quarter, even if the Bills have the ball (depending on how much time is left, of course), remember how incredible Lamar Jackson was in those situations. He had a QBR of 141.4 when up between 1 and 8 points, as opposed to Josh Allen's 96.3 when trailing by the same amount
• Also, keep in mind that Allen didn't have any fourth-quarter comebacks last season
• Of Jackson's 41 TD passes, only three came in the first quarter, while 17 (41%) occurred in the second. The Ravens exploded in the second quarter, averaging 9.5 points (2nd best)
• Meanwhile, 10 of Allen's 13 rushing TDs came in the first or fourth quarters
• 12 of Allen's 28 TD passes came in the third quarter and only three in the first

📺 Vikings vs. Bears live betting strategy: MNF

• Date: Monday, Sept. 8
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Soldier Field (Chicago, IL)
• How to watch: ABC

For various reasons, I backed the under in my Vikings vs. Bears prediction. This might be another occasion to jump on the under if an early touchdown is scored. The value will increase, and just because one or both teams score early doesn't mean they will score often.

There are so many unknowns about both offenses, so I'd err on the defensive side until we see evidence to the contrary.

Here are a few more tidbits that could help after kickoff: 

• As noted in my early Week 1 rookie player prop projections, rookie quarterbacks usually struggle in their debut. McCarthy, a de facto rookie, could follow in Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams' footsteps, all of whom finished their first regular-season games way under their passing yards totals
• So, even if McCarthy gets off to a decent start, I still suggest backing the under at a higher value, especially if the Vikings get a decent lead
• With Jordan Addison out, T.J. Hockenson should get more looks. If the Vikings start slowly and fall behind by a score, investigate totals for his receptions and receiving yards. Consider backing the Over if the price is right

💡 NFL live betting strategy

As with every game, it's important to check the NFL weather report. If rain is imminent, consider backing the Over on certain rush attempts and the Under on receiving yards props. But you'll have to decide quickly and with conviction, before the best sports betting apps adjust prices.

Check back each week for our live betting strategy, which will be jam-packed with real-life live betting examples from previous weeks, helping to inform subsequent live betting opportunities. 

❓ NFL live betting FAQs

How do you live bet the NFL?

Head to one of the best live betting sites, click on the NFL, and find the game you're interested in. It will have live betting options once you click on that game. Sportsbooks will also have a live betting section. 

What can you bet on live in the NFL?

You can live bet on a variety of markets, including moneyline, spread betting, next team to score, Over/Under, player props such as next touchdown, and more.

Is it profitable to live bet the NFL?

Live betting can be profitable if you take advantage of odds when the value is high. You can make calculated decisions during TV timeouts and between plays. Watching a game and getting a feel for it is a beneficial way to stay informed, which can lead to sound decisions. It also helps to negate the sportsbooks' inherent advantage when setting odds and betting lines.

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