2026 AFC Championship Game: Three Key Matchups for Patriots vs. Broncos
The AFC Championship Game is this Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (CBS) from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, and I'm looking at the key matchups for Patriots vs. Broncos
With New England Set to take on Denver's second-string QB, Jarrett Stidham, the Patriots are a 5.5-point betting favorite and the popular team to back with conference championship predictions for this AFC showdown.
🏆 Patriots vs. Broncos key matchups: AFC Championship Game
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Drake Maye vs. Broncos pass rush
Key matchup: MVP contender Drake Maye vs. Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen, Jonathon Cooper, and John Franklin-Myers
The biggest reason New England is the Super Bowl odds favorite out of the AFC is due to the QB situation. But trench play is the great equalizer in the NFL, and if the Broncos can pressure Drake Maye and force a few mistakes from the second-year star, Denver can pull this game out at home.
In the Patriots' playoff win last week against the Houston Texans, Maye struggled because he was under so much pressure. He's already been sacked 10 times in two playoff games, and Denver is capable of getting after him.
New England is starting two rookie offensive linemen on the left side, Will Campbell and Jared Wilson, and three of the Broncos' starting defensive linemen are top 35 in the NFL in pressures.
- Key stat: Denver led the NFL in sacks in the regular season (68), with each of its starting defensive linemen registering at least seven.
- The X-Factor: The Broncos' starting defensive tackles, Allen and Franklin-Myers, combined for the most pressures among an IDL pair in the NFL this season (112). If New England can't block them, the interior pressure could derail Maye.
Broncos run game vs. Patriots front seven
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Key matchup: Quinn Meinerz, Garett Bolles, RJ Harvey vs. Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Robert Spillane
It's been a mixed bag when you look at how backup QBs have fared in the conference championships and the Super Bowl. For Stidham to lead the Broncos to Super Bowl 60, his offensive line and run game need to show up in a big way against one of the league's top defenses.
The Broncos will need to control the clock and shorten the game to take pressure off Stidham, but to do that, Denver needs more from its run game. The Broncos were No. 16 in EPA per rush during the regular season, and rookie RJ Harvey has averaged more than four yards per carry in just five of 18 games this season.
Pro Bowler Quinn Meinerz needs to clear the way against one of the best defensive tackle duos in the league, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, for Denver to have a chance. The run game will be even more important given the NFL weather report for conference championships.
- Key stat: New England allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL regular season (101.7) and is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL postseason (67.5).
- X-Factor: The Patriots' defense was more susceptible against the run (No. 16 in EPA per rush) than the pass (No. 10) in the regular season. If New England can stop the run with just seven in the box, Stidham will be in trouble.
Courtland Sutton vs. Christian Gonzalez
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Key matchup: Courtland Sutton, WR vs. Christian Gonzalez, CB
The Jarrett Stidham and Nick Foles comparison is a bit of a stretch, but Courtland Sutton was compared frequently to Alshon Jeffery when he was coming out of SMU. For Stidham to put on a cape as Foles did, he needs Sutton to have the same playoff impact that Jeffery did for the Philadelphia Eagles.
In the NFC Championship and Super Bowl, Jeffery scored three touchdowns for the Eagles, but Sutton might have a hard time doing that kind of damage against Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez allowed just a 46.1% catch rate and allowed a 64.4 QB rating when targeted in the regular season.
He's been just as stellar in the playoffs, allowing a 49.4 QB rating through two playoff games and leading the team in forced incompletions (4). Sutton, on the other hand, has been sporadic this season. He led the Broncos in yards per route run, but was just 63rd in the league (1.62).
- Key stat: Sutton was the 11th-most targeted player in the NFL in the regular season (129) and accounted for 25.8% of Bo Nix's passing yard production.
- X-Factor: If Denver is going to pull off the upset, Sutton needs to play like a star against one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He got off to a rough start in the playoffs last week with two drops and just 53 yards on nine targets. Stidham will need a lot more from him to win.
🔮 Patriots vs. Broncos predictions
Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
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