Justin Herbert Prop Picks, Predictions Week 10: Can Chargers Overcome the 49ers Defense?
This season has gone about as well as expected for Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, considering the obstacles he’s had to overcome. Here are our top Week 10 Justin Herbert prop picks.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert has only played two full seasons of NFL football, but the acknowledgement he’s already received speaks volumes about his talent. He won the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020, and followed it up with an even better 2021 season leading to his first Pro Bowl selection.
2022 has been Herbert’s trickiest challenge yet, but there’s not much more he can do considering he’s been without two of his best weapons most of the year. A pair of wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, will be out once again.
Luckily, Herbert still has some support from star running back Austin Ekeler. Sophomore wideout Joshua Palmer played well too, eclipsing 100 receiving yards last week thanks to the large number of vacated targets. Does Herbert have enough surrounding talent to smash these props?
Here are our best Justin Herbert NFL Week 10 prop picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook).
Check out our Chargers vs. 49ers picks and preview.
Chargers vs. 49ers Odds
NFL Week 10 Justin Herbert Prop Picks
Justin Herbert Prop Predictions for Week 10
Under 253.5 passing yards (-120)
This market is often the trickiest quarterback prop to predict, but there’s a strong case for Herbert to throw Under the current total. His season numbers look solid when viewed as a whole, but his play dropped off since Week 4. Herbert recorded 1,250 passing yards and nine touchdowns with just two interceptions in this season's first four games, but only managed 1,004 passing yards and four touchdowns with three interceptions in four games since.
Herbert has surpassed 253.5 passing yards just once in his last four matchups, and that was against a Seahawks team that's given up a lot of passing yards and touchdowns to opponents all year. He'll probably throw for north of 200 yards, but 254-plus seems like a big ask without his top two wideouts against one of the NFL's best defenses.
Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130)
Passing yards are hard to come by against San Francisco’s D, and passing touchdowns are no different. Only the Texans and Broncos have allowed less touchdowns through the air, and Herbert couldn't toss more than one last week against the Falcons. Considering Atlanta has allowed the league's most passing yards, and the second-most touchdowns, that should have been a slam dunk matchup.
Only so much blame can be placed on Herbert given that Allen and Williams are out, but the likelihood of throwing 2+ touchdowns against the 49ers defense is simply unlikely — regardless of the reasons why. San Francisco has the NFL's best ground defense, meaning Ekeler will also have a tough time sneaking through tackles. The Chargers have an outside shot of scoring two or more TDs, but the likelihood of the Under is still greater.
Over 37.5 pass attempts (-115)
There’s some solid upside baked into this prop market, given how often L.A. likes to throw the ball. Ironically, the absence of key wideouts can increase a team’s pass attempts, as the probability of being in a losing game script is higher with a weaker lineup. Herbert only threw less than 38 pass attempts twice this season, and is poised to hit the Over regardless of the efficiency of these attempts.
The Chargers have one of pro football's worst run defenses, meaning the 49ers tandem of running back Christian McCaffrey and hybrid receiver Deebo Samuel can have monster performances. L.A. will trail and have no choice but to gamble via the pass, even if a lot of those are check downs to Ekeler or tight end Gerald Everett. When it comes to Herbert prop bets, this is about as safe as it gets.
Where to Bet on Justin Herbert Prop Picks
Justin Herbert prop picks made 11/12/2022 at 4:52 p.m. ET
