Joe Burrow Prop Picks, Predictions: Top Values on Star QB vs. Browns on Monday Night Football
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been as good as any signal caller in the league over the past two weeks while racking up 781 passing yards, six passing touchdowns, and another two rushing scores. Here’s a peek at our top Burrow prop picks for Monday Night Football.
Burrow’s recent success has him trading as low as +1200 to win the regular season NFL MVP Award via DraftKings Sportsbook. However, he’ll be without No. 1 wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (hip) Monday against the Cleveland Browns and for the foreseeable future.
The Brownies don’t project to be an intimidating opponent for Burrow, though. Cleveland ranks fifth-last in pass defense DVOA per Football Outsiders and grades fifth-lowest in overall defense. Making matters worse for Cleveland, two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward has already been ruled out due to a concussion, and second-year starter at the position, Greg Newsome, is also questionable due to an oblique injury.
Here are our top Joe Burrow prop picks for the Monday Night Football tilt between the division rival Bengals and Browns (odds via PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook).
Check out our Monday Night Football props and Bengals-Browns picks.
Bengals vs. Browns Odds
Joe Burrow Prop Picks for Monday Night Football
Over 23.5 pass completions (+100) ★★★★
Burrow has cleared this total in five of seven games this season, and I have him projected for 24.7 competitions on Monday. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Cincinnati offense had fewer chunk plays through the air and moved the ball more meticulously with short and intermediate passes without Chase.
Additionally, there’s considerable value going with the even-money offering from PointsBet. FanDuel has the same 23.5 total trading at -108 odds, and most other shops have a 22.5 total with significantly higher vig.
Over 261.5 passing yards & Bengals moneyline (+230) ★★★★
The Bengals are a road favorite with the line flip-flopping between -3 and -3.5 across shops. Burrow’s passing-yards total is as high as 266.5 via Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings. Additionally, if a parlay was available at DraftKings for the Bengals moneyline and Burrow to go over 266.5 passing yards, the odds would only be +181.
Considering the tremendous disparity in odds, plus the DraftKings passing-yard line being higher, this prebuilt parlay presents oodles of value at PointsBet. I have Burrow projected for 263.5 passing yards, and he’s cleared this total in five of seven games this season.
To have 2+ passing touchdowns in each half (+950 via FanDuel) ★
While purely a recreational recommendation, this offering from FanDuel’s Game Specials isn’t completely out of reach. Burrow pulled off the feat against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17 last year, after all.
Admittedly, I have Burrow projected for just 1.98 touchdowns against the Browns, but the entertainment value far outweighs profit seeking with this wager. Plus, as noted, Cleveland’s secondary will be missing at least one key cog.
Let’s go, Joe!
Where to Bet on Monday Night Football Prop Picks
Monday Night Football prop picks made 10/31/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
