How Have Backup QBs Like Jarrett Stidham Fared in Conference Championships, Super Bowl?

If it wasn't clear already that Jarrett Stidham is facing a daunting challenge as part of our conference championship predictions, that reality hits you fast when looking at how backup QBs have fared in the conference championships and the Super Bowl.

That doesn't happen because second stringers have consistently face planted under the brightest spotlight. In fact, the opposite is true, and although the list of backups who have played in the Super Bowl isn't lengthy, it includes several of the greatest passers ever.

What separates Stidham though is his utter lack of experience. Not just in the playoffs either.

🐎 Why is Stidham in such a unique position?

There's been frequent comparisons between Jarrett Stidham and Nick Foles, with the latter one of the more recent and prominent examples of a quarterback taking the reins late in the season and guiding his team to a championship.

But the core flaw in that warm and cozy narrative is that Foles had logged 36 career starts prior to stepping in for Carson Wentz on the eventual champion Philadelphia Eagles in 2017. Stidham has recorded a mere four starts, and he hasn't thrown a pass during a regular-season game since 2023.

Other prominent backups in conference championship games or the Super Bowl held little experience too, including some significant ones on the list below.

But even Tom Brady, whose Hall of Fame story began when Drew Bledsoe was injured, had been the New England Patriots' starter since Week 3 of the 2001 season. Ditto for Kurt Warner, who stepped in during the 1999 campaign when Trent Green tore his ACL in a preseason game. 

So yes, there's optimism stemming from the history of Super Bowl success tied to backup quarterbacks, or in some cases starters who fell on hard times and regained their role (Terry Bradshaw). However, Stidham is the first to truly be thrust into a playoff inferno and asked to start in the conference championship game after not doing so once throughout the rest of the season.

📋 Backup quarterbacks who have played in the Super Bowl

Jeff Hostetler of Giants lore offers the nearest parallel to Stidham. Colin Kaepernick isn't far off experience-wise either, but he at least was given nearly half a season of starting time before the playoffs even began. Meanwhile, Hostetler is the rare example of parachuting almost right into the postseason after Phil Simms suffered a foot injury.

But although Hostetler's heroics come close, even that isn't quite a direct comparison. He was on the field the year prior for one start, whereas Stidham hasn't started since 2023. And there was a buildup period to end the 1990 season with two starts, and then he was also under center for Giants' first playoff game.

However, Stidham will benefit from another common element among the QBs listed: defense.

There are a few outlier expectations, but notice the minuscule point totals from the opposition. The average in the conference championship games is 9.7 points, and during the Super Bowl it's 18.

💸 How to bet on Stidham

It's fine to lack confidence in Stidham getting past the New England Patriots on the road. It's expected, in fact, and our Gary Pearson shares those feelings while noting in his early Patriots vs. Broncos prediction that since 2003, quarterbacks playing in their first playoff game hold just a 38% cover rate.

But despite the imposing history Stidham faces there and elsewhere, a path exists for him to get to the Super Bowl. It's rooted in the Broncos asking their backup to do as little as possible while leaning on their rushing offense and third-ranked defense (18.3 points allowed per game during the regular season).

No matter how much you trust that approach will work, put down a sprinkle on the Jarrett Stidham Super Bowl MVP odds now. A quarterback has taken the honor 34 times, and Stidham's +2000 betting odds are significantly longer than the prices for every other potential Super Bowl quarterback, which all sit at +300 or shorter.

Alternatively, Stidham has shown some rushing ability in the past. The sample size at the professional level is small, as is the case with anything tied to Stidham after just four career starts. But he did rush for 39 yards during one of those outings. So if you're long-shot shopping, stop by the Super Bowl anytime touchdown scorer odds, too, where he's getting +2500 from DraftKings.

Or the same market for Sunday's game, with Stidham receiving +450 betting odds.

Elsewhere in props tied to the AFC Championship Game, Stidham could be forced to pass more than the Broncos would like if they fall behind as +4.5 underdogs. That makes the Over on his 32.5 pass attempts line appealing through Draftkings.

His passing yards line also features a low bar to clear if the game plays out that way, with Caesars setting it at 198.5. Stidham may lack experience, but he's averaged 270 passing yards across his four starts.