Giants vs. Patriots AI Picks: MNF Predictions & Best Prop Bet for Monday Night Football

The Super Bowl isn't on the line this time, but two historic rivals will face off tonight when the New England Patriots (10-2) host the New York Giants (2-10) on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN). Our Giants vs. Patriots AI predictions project a workmanlike win for the home favorites at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.

We've trained the latest ChatGPT model to offer its exact score prediction and projected stat leaders for both teams, as well as its best MNF prop bet tonight. You can catch the rest of our (human) expert picks with our NFL Week 13 predictions.

Giants vs. Patriots AI predictions: Monday Night Football

See all of our NFL AI predictions with projected scores for every game.

🔢 Patriots projected stats

• Passing leader: Drake Maye – 22/34, 247 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
• Rushing leader: TreVeyon Henderson – 17 rushes, 78 yards, 1 TD
• Receiving leader: Stefon Diggs – 8 receptions, 87 yards, 1 TD

🔢 Giants projected stats

• Passing leader: Jaxson Dart – 21/33, 232 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• Rushing leader: Tyrone Tracy Jr. – 15 rushes, 63 yards
• Receiving leader: Wan’Dale Robinson – 7 receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD

🔮 Giants vs. Patriots prediction

This sets up as a “professional win” spot for New England rather than a fireworks show. Drake Maye and the Patriots’ passing game have been efficient, leaning on Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry as chain-movers while TreVeyon Henderson handles the bulk of the early-down work. Against a Giants defense that has rushed the passer well but struggled on the back end, the projection has Maye living in manageable third downs, taking underneath completions, and letting Diggs win isolated matchups when New York is forced into single-high.

On the other side, Jaxson Dart has given the Giants an offensive pulse, but he’s working without Malik Nabers and behind a line that can be stressed by New England’s front. The Patriots are built to squeeze out explosive plays, rally to the ball, and make the Giants string together long drives. Dart and Tyrone Tracy Jr. can manufacture some offense — enough to keep this within one score late — but the projection leans on the Patriots’ situational edge on third down and in the red zone.

Score prediction: Patriots 24, Giants 17

Best player prop bet for Monday Night Football

See all of our experts' NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds.

Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 receptions

Diggs has quickly become Maye’s most reliable read, and the matchup leans heavily toward another high-volume day. The Giants’ defensive structure under new coordinator Charlie Bullen has improved up front, but their coverage unit has been highly vulnerable against precision route-runners who can separate early in the down. With New York frequently rotating to single-high looks on passing downs, Diggs is the player most likely to draw isolated matchups and win them. Our projection has him finishing with 8 receptions for 87 yards, which clears this number with room to spare.

Even if New England plays with a lead — which our 24–17 projection expects — Diggs maintains a strong reception floor because of how the Patriots use him as an extension of the run game. His quick-outs, option routes, and short crossers all function as easy rhythm throws for Maye, and New York has struggled to limit that type of high-percentage volume. Given role, matchup, and projected game script, Over 4.5 receptions is the clearest value on the board.

Best bet: Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 receptions (-101 via DraftKings)

How to watch Monday Night Football: Giants vs. Patriots

• Date: Monday, Dec. 1
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
• TV: ESPN