NFL MVP Odds & Favorites 2026: Matthew Stafford Closes as Heavy Favorite
Matthew Stafford keeps surging during the playoffs, cementing himself as the heavy favorite by the closing NFL MVP odds as finalists were announced. Stafford's MVP odds of -450 represent an implied win probability of 81.81%, compared to Drake Maye's 22.22% implied probability based on +350 NFL MVP odds.
📊 NFL MVP odds 2026
2026 NFL MVP odds via FanDuel Canada
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | -450 | 81.81% | $2.22 |
| Drake Maye | +350 | 22.22% | $35.00 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +30000 | 0.33% | $3000.00 |
| Bo Nix | +50000 | 0.20% | $5000.00 |
| Justin Herbert | +50000 | 0.20% | $5000.00 |
👀 NFL MVP closing odds and splits (BetMGM)
- Most tickets: Matthew Stafford 9.4%
- Most money: Matthew Stafford 23.3%
- Biggest liability: Matthew Stafford
- Closing favorite: Matthew Stafford -145
🏆 NFL MVP finalists
Here are the finalists for the AP NFL MVP award, which will be awarded on Thursday, Feb. 5:
- Josh Allen
- Trevor Lawrence
- Drake Maye
- Christian McCaffrey
- Matthew Stafford
📖 NFL MVP opening odds
Here are the opening 2025-26 NFL MVP odds via DraftKings from Feb. 7.
- Lamar Jackson, +500
- Josh Allen, +550
- Patrick Mahomes, +750
- Joe Burrow, +750
- Jayden Daniels, +1000
- Justin Herbert, +2000
- Jordan Love, +2200
- C.J. Stroud, +2500
- Baker Mayfield, +2500
- Kyler Murray, +2500
- Jalen Hurts, +2500
- Caleb Williams, +2800
- Jared Goff, +2800
- Dak Prescott, +3000
- Brock Purdy, +3500
- Bo Nix, +3500
- Tua Tagovailoa, +4000
- Matthew Stafford, +4000
- Drake Maye, +4500
- Trevor Lawrence, +4500
- Aaron Rodgers, +5000
- Saquon Barkley, +6000
- Sam Darnold, +6000
- Michael Penix Jr., +6000
- Bryce Young, +7000
- Jahmyr Gibbs, +7500
- Derrick Henry, +10000
- Christian McCaffrey, +10000
- Cam Ward, +10000
- Russell Wilson, +10000
- Bijan Robinson, +10000
- Anthony Richardson, +10000
📜 NFL MVP betting history
Here's a look at the last 10 NFL MVP winners, along with their preseason odds to win the award. The last four winners have all opened with shorter than 15/1 odds, which followed a three-year streak of long shots winning MVP honors.
| Year | Player | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Josh Allen, QB | Bills | +850 |
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson, QB | Ravens | +1400 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes, QB | Chiefs | +800 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers, QB | Packers | +1100 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers, QB | Packers | +3000 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, QB | Ravens | +4000 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes, QB | Chiefs | +3525 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady, QB | Patriots | +385 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan, QB | Falcons | +7500 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton, QB | Panthers | +5200 |
❓ NFL MVP FAQs
Who is favored to win NFL MVP?
Matthew Stafford (-450) is the betting favorite by the NFL MVP odds.
When will the 2025-26 NFL MVP be announced?
The 2025-26 NFL MVP will likely be announced on the Thursday ahead of the 2026 Super Bowl at NFL Honors.
Who was the NFL MVP last year?
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen was crowned the NFL MVP for the first time after closing as the betting favorite in the regular season.
Who has the most NFL MVP awards in history?
Former quarterback Peyton Manning has won five NFL MVP awards. He captured four with the Indianapolis Colts (2003, 2004, 2008, 2009) and one with the Denver Broncos (2013).
Who was the last back-to-back MVP winner?
Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021.
Has anyone won consecutive MVPs more than once?
Peyton Manning won consecutive MVP awards twice, in 2003 and 2004 and again in 2008 and 2009.
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