First Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Patriots vs. Bills: Sunday Night Football
My best first touchdown scorer predictions for Patriots vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football focus on Dalton Kincaid, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Elijah Moore ahead of tonight’s 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Bills are favored by 8 or 8.5 points with an Over/Under of 49.5 points.
Each of my NFL picks below has odds of +1000 or better, as I look at longer shots to score first in this game. For more about this matchup, check out our NFL predictions for Week 5 or our Patriots vs. Bills anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
🏈 First touchdown scorer predictions for Patriots vs. Bills: Sunday Night Football
NFL first touchdown scorer picks for Sunday Night Football; odds subject to change.
- Bills pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE (+1400 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patriots pick: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (+1500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best long shot: Elijah Moore, WR (+5500 via DraftKings) ⭐
🔮 Patriots vs. Bills expert picks for Sunday Night Football
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💰 Best Patriots vs. Bills first touchdown scorer bets: SNF
Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
🦬 Bills first touchdown scorer prediction: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills (+1400) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Bills have scored first in three of their four games this season. With them favored by more than a touchdown, they’re the more likely team to score first again. And the best option for them isn’t James Cook (+400) or Josh Allen (+600), it’s tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Kincaid has already scored first for the Bills in two games. But this is also a great play because the Patriots don’t cover tight ends well. They’ve already allowed two touchdowns to the position, and they rank seventh-worst in the league in yards allowed to tight ends. Kincaid has 14 catches for 179 yards and leads the team with three receiving touchdowns.
FanDuel, bet365, and DraftKings are all offering this prop for +1400. The price implies a 6.67% chance he scores first. A $10 bet would pay $140.
🪖 Patriots first touchdown scorer prediction: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots (+1500) ⭐⭐⭐
Though a running back has yet to be the first touchdown scorer for the Patriots this season, the Bills rank 31st in rush defense, allowing 164.3 rushing yards per game, and 30th in yards allowed per carry (6.0). They’ve also allowed five rushing touchdowns.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the only running back in the Patriots’ committee, featuring TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson, to not score this season. He still remains the team’s lead back, and he led the team with nine carries last week, despite his turnover troubles in Week 3. It’s just a matter of time before Stevenson finds the end zone, as he scored eight touchdowns last season.
The price of +1500 at FanDuel implies a 6.25% chance that Stevenson scores first. A $10 bet would pay $150.
🎯 Best long shot to score first touchdown: Elijah Moore, WR, Bills (+5500) ⭐
Elijah Moore has caught only four of five targets this season, but other than last week, when he recorded just one touch, he’s played a unique role in the offense. He actually has more rushing attempts (5) than receptions, and he found the end zone on one of those rushes in Week 2.
Additionally, Moore has two receptions of at least 30 yards. While neither of those plays resulted in scores, he’ll have big-play chances against a Patriots defense that has already allowed 16 plays of 20 yards or more, the second-most in the league.
The price of +5500 available at FanDuel and DraftKings for this first touchdown scorer prediction suggests that Moore has just a 1.79% chance of scoring first. A $10 bet would pay $550 in profit.
📈 Patriots vs. Bills first touchdown scorer odds: SNF
Latest NFL odds updated live in real time.
📺 How to watch Patriots vs. Bills: Sunday Night Football
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 5
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
- TV: NBC
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