First Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Monday Night Football: Commanders vs. Chiefs TD Picks

It could be a lopsided affair on Monday Night Football between the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs, and that's led to some appealing odds as I make my first touchdown scorer predictions.

Both starting running backs are receiving especially juicy betting odds to score first, and our NFL picks also think second-string Chiefs tight end Noah Gray is a quality long shot. It's all part of our NFL predictions for Week 8 ahead of kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., with the Chiefs listed as an 11.5-point betting favorite.

🏈 Monday Night Football first touchdown scorer predictions

NFL first touchdown scorer picks for Monday Night Football; odds subject to change.

💰 Best Commanders vs. Chiefs first touchdown scorer bets: MNF

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔴 Isiah Pacheco (+1100) ⭐⭐⭐

Kareem Hunt returned to practice on Saturday for the Chiefs, though that came after he was out and then limited earlier in the week due to a knee issue. He could be operating at less than full strength again tonight, which will open the door for Isiah Pacheco to handle more of the banging and crashing around the goal line.

Hunt has been vacuuming up much of the goal-line work due to his bowling ball running style. The veteran has received four carries inside the 5-yard-line and seven inside the 10-yard-line, with Pacheco at none and three, respectively. A hobbled Hunt ceding even a portion of that work is significant, especially at these lengthy odds for a running back.

There's also the added element of Pacheco's greater involvement as a pass-catcher, with 17 targets to Hunt's eight. Finally, Hunt is receiving far longer odds at +2200 from the best sports betting apps to score first, showing oddsmakers are likely concerned about his injury, too.

A $10 bet using the +1100 odds from bet365 on Pacheco could result in a $110 payout, with an implied probability of 8.33%.

I also highlighted Patrick Mahomes as a strong play in my first touchdown scorer predictions for Week 8.

🎖️ Jacory Croskey-Merritt (+1400) ⭐⭐⭐

Given the heavy blowout potential tonight that's reflected in the Monday Night Football odds, it's entirely unsurprising to see the Chiefs dominating the top of the first touchdown scorer odds. Washington is an underdog of +11.5 at some of the best sports betting sites, with the game getting a reasonably high total of 48.5.

But have the books gone too far in Kansas City's direction? Never forget there's an element of luck and randomness to this market, with a team set to get blown out still able to win the coin toss and then stumble into the end zone after a few chunk plays. Yet the first five options listed on the board are Chiefs players, including second-string running back Brashard Smith.

Which brings us to Jacory Croskey-Merritt, a running back getting +1400 betting odds for one of our first touchdown scorer predictions. You need to throw yourself at any starting running back with odds that long to score first, regardless of the circumstances. But you should sprint that much faster when said circumstances include the Commanders trotting out a backup quarterback in Marcus Mariota and therefore surely leaning on Croskey-Merritt more. Our Phil Wood also expects Mariota to underperform in his Commanders vs. Chiefs player prop bets.

The impressive rookie has scored four rushing touchdowns already, and at 73 rushing attempts he's receiving significantly more carries than any other Washington running back (Chris Rodriguez Jr. is second at 26).

A $10 wager using these +1400 betting odds from bet365 could lead to a $140 payout, with an implied probability of 6.67%.

🎯 Noah Gray (+3500) ⭐⭐⭐

As our Esten McLaren quite rightly noted in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Monday Night Football, the anytime TD market is appealing for Gray due to the high possibility of this game being a laugher, with Gray then finding the end zone during garbage time.

But to a lesser degree similar thinking applies here, with the Chiefs perhaps anticipating a stress-free evening and prioritizing rest early for the 36-year-old Travis Kelce. More importantly for our purposes, that would require only a slight turn of the knob in terms of playing time, as Kelce has been on the field for 72% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps thus far, with Gray at 60%.

The difference clearly lies in the roles, with Kelce the far more targeted option while getting 40 looks to Gray's 16 entering tonight. But Gray showed last season he can prioritize efficiency and effectiveness over volume while needing just 49 targets to score five times, twice more than Kelce. He'll now face a Commanders defense giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Wagering $10 on Gray to score first could lead to a whopping $350 profit through these betting odds from FanDuel, which come with an implied probability of 2.78%. Elsewhere, Gary Pearson is honing in on another Chiefs pass-catcher in his Commanders vs. Chiefs MNF prediction.

📊 Commanders vs. Chiefs first TD scorer odds: Monday Night Football

Latest NFL odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Monday Night Football: Commanders vs. Chiefs

• Date: Monday, Oct. 27
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• How to watch: ESPN