First Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Thursday Night Football: Bills vs. Texans TD Picks

My Bills vs. Texans first touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football are primarily looking to the ground, especially ahead of a game featuring one of the league's worst run defenses.

Josh Allen, Woody Marks, and Josh Palmer are featured as part of our NFL predictions for Week 12 ahead of what could be a Thursday prime-time slugfest. The Bills enter as -6 favorites, in part due to Davis Mills being under center for the Texans. And the total sits at 43.5 prior to kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston.

✅ First touchdown scorer predictions: Bills vs. Texans

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 12

💰 Best Thursday Night Football first touchdown scorer bets

🔥 Woody Marks, RB, Texans (+750) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There's a near-even split overall between Woody Marks and Nick Chubb in Houston's backfield when it comes to usage as a runner overall this campaign.

However, Marks is the more versatile back on passing downs, getting 25 targets that he's turned into 190 yards. Chubb has posted a far lesser 59 yards on 18 targets. Combine that with the recent workload uptick for Marks after his 42 carries across the team's last three games compared to Chubb's 19, and the choice is clear when picking a Texans running back to thrive and score early against the league's second-worst run defense. The Bills are allowing 153.0 rushing yards per game.

If Marks scores first, a $10 bet using these +750 odds from Caesars would lead to a $75 profit, with an implied probability of 11.76%.

Our Matt Jacob is also highlighting Marks in his Bills vs. Texans player props.

🔥 Josh Allen, QB, Bills (+525) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Texans' defense is imposing in every way, and that includes a third-ranked run-stop unit allowing only 87.1 yards per game.

But defending Josh Allen in full flight is a different beast altogether, especially when we're getting toward the time of year when he's more at peace with sacrificing himself physically. Allen has logged 19 rush attempts across his last four games (4.8 per game), a span in which he's also lived in the end zone as a rusher while scoring seven times, including three last week.

Allen has reached pay dirt 10 times overall as a runner this season, putting him only a little behind last year's total of 12 with seven games to go. Many of his touchdowns have been a product of brute force, with each one coming within the 10-yard line. He easily leads all quarterbacks with 16 carries in that area (Jalen Hurts is second with 11), and sits tied for eighth overall.

A $10 bet on Allen scoring first would translate to a $52.50 payout using the +525 odds from Caesars, with an implied probability of 16%.

Our Gary Pearson also believes in Allen as a rusher tonight as part of his Bills vs. Texans prediction.

🔥 Josh Palmer, WR, Bills (+2000) ⭐⭐⭐

Yes, both pass defenses are scary in this game, with the Bills sitting second leaguewide at 169.7 yards allowed per outing, and the Texans only narrowly behind them at 171.0. But if it's a long shot you seek in a market that's at maximum fun while riding with a dark horse, then a red-zone threat set to see more action due to injuries deserves your attention, even if the matchup isn't inviting.

The Bills will be without tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receivers Mecole Hardman and Curtis Samuel, and they're reportedly set to bench red-zone specialist Keon Coleman again. That opens the door for Josh Palmer, who has flashed at times this season, including back on opening night with his five catches on nine targets. He was given five targets last week too, a high since Week 1.

The opportunity is there for Palmer with the team's depth chart at the position decimated, and the odds are juicy for a receiver sure to get plenty of volume.

A $10 wager using these +2000 odds from DraftKings would result in a $200 payout, with an implied probability of 4.76%.

Our Brenden Schaeffer is targeting another touchdown scorer in his Bills vs. Texans SGP.

📊 First touchdown scorer odds: Bills vs. Texans

See live NFL odds for every game this season.

📺 How to watch Thursday Night Football: Bills vs. Texans

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 20
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: NRG Stadium (Houston)
• TV: Prime Video