Falcons vs. Colts Prediction & Odds Today: Best Bets for Week 10 in Germany
My Falcons vs. Colts prediction for this morning's clash from Olympic Stadium in Berlin, Germany (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network), backs the Under while expecting a bounce-back outing from Jonathan Taylor.
The Colts are the 6.5-point betting favorite, and the analysis below is part of the NFL predictions for Week 10.
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🏈 Falcons vs. Colts preview & score prediction
Olympic Stadium in Berlin, Germany, offers an altogether different environment, not just because it's across the pond, but also due to the playing surface. It will mark the second game for both teams outdoors on grass, and neither fared particularly well the first time.
The Colts lost 27-20 in Week 9 at Acrisure Stadium to the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Falcons mustered just 10 points at Levi's Stadium in Week 7 against an injury-depleted San Francisco 49ers' defense.
Both teams are used to playing on turf in idyllic conditions, neither of which will be the case in Berlin. While I'm not suggesting grass will be the sole reason for the Under, it could play a part.
The temperature will also be cooler than they are accustomed to, as detailed in the weather report below.
Falcons' high blitz rate a key to the Under
The Falcons will also want to emulate the blueprint Pittsburgh laid out for stopping Daniel Jones, who is among the most clutch QBs. The Steelers sacked Jones five times on a 28.6% blitz rate and picked him off three times. Jones had a rating of 34.9 at PFF under pressure in that game, and blitzing is Atlanta's forte, with a league-high 40.9% rate.
Jeff Ulbrich's defense should be able to make life even more uncomfortable for Jones, who will already be forced out of his comfort zone due to the conditions in Berlin. Plus, of Atlanta's eight games, seven had 48 points or fewer.
Of the best sports betting sites, BetMGM offers the best price (-110) on the Under 48.5, where a winning $10 bet will profit $9.09.
Our Isaiah Sirois also broke down this game in his Falcons vs. Colts Player Props.
Score prediction: Colts 24, Falcons 17
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🆚 Falcons vs. Colts matchup to watch
Jonathan Taylor vs. Falcons defense
The key to Indianapolis' success this season has been its balanced attack. Both of Indy's losses occurred when Jonathan Taylor hit the under on this total, which he has done in four of nine games. The Colts will know the importance of not only getting Taylor the rock but also seeing their star running back have a productive day.
Atlanta's most glaring defensive weakness is in trying to stop the run. The unit, in the top 10 of rushing yards allowed per game (124.4), concedes the second-highest percentage of rushing yards per game (44.03%).
Taylor hit the Over on this total in three of the previous four games. BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel offer the lower total of 91.5 yards, with the latter two providing the best price (-114). A winning $10 bet will profit $8.77.
Our Matt Jacob also broke down this game in his Falcons vs. Colts Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions.
Best prop bet: Jonathan Taylor Over 91.5 rushing yards (-114 via Caesars)
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📈 Falcons vs. Colts betting trends
| Falcons | Statistic | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | W-L record | 7-2 |
| 4-4 | ATS record | 6-3 |
| 2-5-1 | O/U record | 5-4 |
| 5.5 | Yards per play | 6.3 |
| 4.9 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2 |
| +0.5 | Turnover margin | +0.3 |
| 1-4 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
| L, 24-23 vs. Patriots | Previous result | L, 27-20 vs. Steelers |
🚑 Falcons vs. Colts injury report
🌤️ Falcons vs. Colts weather
The temperature is expected to be about 48 degrees at kickoff, with a 25% chance of precipitation. The winds will gust to 10 mph, and the humidity should be aruond 83%, with thick cloud cover.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
🔢 Falcons vs. Colts updated betting insights
- The Colts opened as the 7-point betting favorite. It has since decreased to -6.5
- 65% of bets are on the Colts to win and cover
- The total is set at 48 or 48.5, and 53% of bets back the Over
📺 How to watch Falcons vs. Colts
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 9
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Olympic Stadium (Berlin, Germany)
- TV: NFL Network
💡 NFL expert picks for Week 10
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