Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction & Odds for Thursday Night Football
I'm backing the betting favorite to cover for just the second time at home this season in my Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction for Thursday Night Football at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. (8:15 p.m., Prime Video).
The Buccaneers are the 4 or 4.5-point betting favorite in a battle of the struggling NFC South foes. As part of the NFL predictions for Week 15, I've also featured a Kyle Pitts player prop.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction
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Buccaneers -4 (-111) ⭐⭐⭐
Atlanta's ground game is its most formidable asset, ranking eighth in DVOA. While Bijan Robinson can make people miss and explode on any given Sunday, Tampa boasts the ninth-best defensive run DVOA.
That unit held Robinson to just 24 rushing yards on 12 carries in Week 1, a key factor in the Buccaneers' 23-20 win. It also prevented four of the previous six opponents from breaking the 100-yard threshold. If things don't go well on the ground, I have no faith that Kirk Cousins will pick up the slack.
The Falcons are 1-3 when the veteran starts, with his only victory against the three-win New Orleans Saints. In those four games, the Falcons have a minus-5 turnover margin. Compare that to their minus-6 across nine other games.
I've also lost confidence in an Atlanta defense that has allowed at least 27 points in four of the previous five games. The only exception came against a Saints team that scores the third-fewest points per game (15.8).
Of the best sports betting sites, only bet365 and Caesars offer -4. Bet365's -111 odds provide marginally better value, where a winning $10 bet will profit $9.01.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 27 - 21 Falcons
💡 More Week 15 predictions
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Key matchup to watch on TNF
Kyle Pitts vs. Buccaneers' secondary
We're still waiting on confirmation about Drake London's status, which I covered in our Falcons vs. Buccaneers injury update, but I'd be surprised to see him suit up, considering Atlanta has been eliminated from playoff contention.
In the last two games, with London sidelined, Pitts had 82 and 90 receiving yards, respectively. The lion's share of his yards last week came before the Seattle Seahawks broke things wide-open.
Cousins will look to Pitts whenever possible, particularly as the Buccaneers rank in the bottom 10 against opposing wide receivers.
The best sports betting sites offer 58.5 or 59.5-yard totals. You can get the lower total at bet365, DraftKings, and BetMGM. DraftKings and bet365 offer the best value (-111). Those odds imply a 52.61% probability, and a winning $10 bet will profit $9.01.
Best prop bet: Over 58.5 receiving yards (-111 via bet365)
Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers betting trends
| Falcons | Statistic | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| 4-9 | W-L record | 7-6 |
| 5-7-1 | ATS record | 5-8 |
| 6-6-1 | O/U record | 7-6 |
| 5.4 | Yards per play | 5.0 |
| 5.2 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7 |
| +0.2 | Turnover margin | +0.7 |
| 1-4 | Last 5 games | 1-4 |
| L, 37-9 vs. Seahawks | Previous result | L, 24-20 vs. Saints |
Falcons vs. Buccaneers injury report
Falcons vs. Buccaneers weather
Ideal conditions in Tampa, Fla., await the Falcons and Buccaneers, with 63 degrees expected at kickoff. There is no chance of precipitation, and wind won't be a factor either. Gusts aren't expected to exceed 4 mph.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
How to watch Thursday Night Football: Falcons vs. Buccaneers
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 11
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
- TV: Prime Video
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