Falcons vs. Buccaneers AI Picks: TNF Predictions & Best Prop Bet for Thursday Night Football

Two NFC South rivals meet tonight when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) host the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) on Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), and our Falcons vs. Buccaneers AI predictions expect the home favorites to overcome a familiar foe to preserve their division title hopes at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.

We've trained the latest ChatGPT model to offer its exact score prediction and projected stat leaders for both teams, as well as its best TNF prop bet tonight. You can catch the rest of our (human) expert picks with our NFL Week 15 predictions.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers AI predictions: Thursday Night Football

See all of our NFL AI predictions for Week 15 with projected scores for every game.

Buccaneers projected stats

• Passing leader: Baker Mayfield — 23/35, 248 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
• Rushing leader: Bucky Irving — 17 carries, 74 yards
• Receiving leader: Chris Godwin — 7 receptions, 82 yards, 1 TD

Falcons projected stats

• Passing leader: Kirk Cousins — 24/37, 232 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• Rushing leader: Bijan Robinson — 18 carries, 86 yards, 1 TD
• Receiving leader: Darnell Mooney — 6 receptions, 71 yards, 1 TD

Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction

Tampa Bay comes in as a 4.5-point home favorite with its season on the line at 7–6, and the model leans toward the Bucs’ balance on both sides of the ball in a controlled, one-score win. With Bucky Irving handling a steady early-down workload behind a top-10 run defense and Baker Mayfield historically productive against Atlanta, Tampa Bay is positioned to sustain drives and keep the pressure on a Falcons team that’s dropped seven of eight and now travels without top wideout Drake London (knee).

Atlanta still has a path to keep this competitive if Bijan Robinson can create on the ground against a stout Bucs front and if Kirk Cousins avoids the back-breaking mistake, but with London ruled out and Kyle Pitts only questionable on a short week, the passing ceiling is capped and drives become more fragile when forced into long yardage. Over four quarters, Tampa Bay’s stronger trench play, healthier receiver depth with Chris Godwin ramped up and Mike Evans likely to return, and red-zone edge tilt this toward a 7-point victory for the Buccaneers.

Score prediction: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 17

Best player prop bet for Thursday Night Football

See all of our experts' NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds.

Bucky Irving Over 58.5 rushing yards

Tampa Bay is expected to run more than its current offensive average in order to shorten the game, protect the quarterback in a short-week environment, and exploit Atlanta’s defensive front. Irving’s role, particularly in early and mid-range carry situations, puts him in a strong position to eclipse 58.5 rushing yards for the fifth time in his last six games as Tampa Bay drives methodically and controls time of possession, limiting the Falcons’ possessions and giving Irving plenty of early-down opportunities.

Irving has consistently received early-down work and looks in the red zone in matchups where Tampa Bay has an edge up front, and this game script leans toward sustained drives and clock control — exactly the situations that boost Irving’s rushing volume. Because the game is projected to stay competitive but with the Bucs ahead for much of it, Irving’s workload stays high throughout all four quarters, making this one of the cleanest prop plays on the Week 15 slate.

Best bet: Bucky Irving Over 58.5 rushing yards (-110 via Caesars)

How to watch Thursday Night Football: Falcons vs. Buccaneers

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 11
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
• TV: Prime Video