Fading Drake Maye in Super Bowl 2026: Strategic Ways to Bet Against the Patriots QB

The best defense in the NFL takes center stage on Sunday against the New England Patriots' second-year QB, and despite him being an MVP candidate, I'm fading Drake Maye in Super Bowl 2026.

The Seattle Seahawks' defense is a major reason why they're a 4.5-point betting favorite for Sunday's 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC) Super Bowl 60 matchup at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. And my Super Bowl predictions expect Mike Macdonald's defense to put on a show as electric as Bad Bunny's halftime performance.

🛑 The case for the fade: Maye vs. Macdonald’s defense

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for the Super Bowl.

Can Maye make a dent against the best defense in the NFL?

While Maye's shoulder issue isn't expected to be a concern in the Super Bowl, the Seahawks' defense will be for the former No. 3 pick. Seattle has the league's No. 1 defense, and as our C Jackson Cowart highlighted in his Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction & early picks, Macdonald's unit is ranked top 15 all-time by DVOA.

So even with Maye closing with the second-shortest NFL MVP odds at our best Super Bowl betting sites, the North Carolina product hasn't dealt with a defense like this before. In the regular season, the Seahawks were No. 1 in points allowed per game (17.2), No. 1 in defensive EPA per play (-0.113), and No. 3 in defensive success rate (40.1%).

With an elite pass rush and one of the best secondaries in the NFL, plus a mastermind calling plays and an advantageous matchup in the trenches, Seattle's defense is poised to put on a show.

🔄 Strategy No. 1: Target turnovers & touchdowns

See all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for Super Bowl 2026.

Drake Maye Over 0.5 INTs & Under 1.5 TD passes  (+175)

Maye has struggled in games against top pass defenses. In six games (including playoffs) against defenses ranked in the top 10 in EPA per dropback, Maye has thrown an interception in four of them and fewer than two touchdowns in four of them.

And while he did both in just two of those six games, Seattle is the most disruptive defense he's faced this season. The Seahawks were top 10 in the NFL in interceptions (18) and sacks (47) in the regular season, and Maye has been putting the ball in conflict against top defenses.

In his last five games against defenses ranked top 10 in EPA per dropback, he's committed eight turnover-worthy plays. In his other 15 games this season, he's totalled just 14.

That's why his odds are juiced to -147 to throw at least one INT in the Super Bowl, and why I like parlaying the Over on his interceptions with the Under on his TD passes at BetMGM for +175 odds.

🚫 Strategy No. 2: The "top-down" trap

Don't miss our Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction for Super Bowl 60 on Sunday.

Drake Maye longest completion Under 33.5 yards (-111) 

Macdonald's defense doesn't give up explosive plays. It would rather stop you over the top and give you everything down low, with a bend-don't-break approach. Seattle allowed the lowest average depth of target in the NFL during the regular season (6.94), and the Seahawks' secondary smothers receivers in space.

Nick Emmanwori (21) and Devon Witherspoon (20) both ranked top 10 in the regular season in coverage stops among defensive backs, and neither had a missed tackle rate above 9.5%. That should help limit big plays after the catch and keep Maye's biggest completions under 34 yards.

The Patriots' star hasn't had a completion longer than 32 yards in his last two playoff games, and his longest completion has been Under 33.5 yards in four of his last seven games.

🐱 Strategy No. 3: Believe in Big Cat & Tank

Expecting a defensive battle on Sunday? So is our Super Bowl AI prediction.

Leonard Williams & DeMarcus Lawrence sack SGP (+430)

It might sound crazy, but a sack parlay might be my favorite bet of the Super Bowl. Maye's biggest problem has become a bigger problem in the playoffs ... he doesn't get rid of the ball under pressure.

In the regular season, he was top 10 in the NFL in pressure-to-sack rate (20.6%) and the fourth-most sacked QB in the NFL (47). And it's been worse in the playoffs, with Maye being the most sacked QB (15), with by far the highest pressure-to-sack rate of the postseason (45.5%).

He's been sacked five times in each of his three playoff games and now takes on a loaded Seahawks defensive line. Leading the way are Leonard "Big Cat" Williams and DeMarcus "Tank" Lawrence.

Williams leads the team in pressures (66), and Lawrence leads the team in sacks (8), and both are plus-money to pick one up in the Super Bowl. To make it even spicier, you can parlay Byron Murphy II to sack Maye, too, for +1400 odds at DraftKings.

🛡️ Strategy No. 4: Defense wins championships

Betting on Seattle to win the Big Game? Check out our Super Bowl same-game parlay for the Seahawks.

Seahawks to cover & the Under (+260)

If you're all aboard the fading Maye train, you likely expect the Seahawks to win decisively in a relatively low-scoring Super Bowl. 

With the Seahawks having the No. 1 defense in the NFL, and Maye's playoff struggles coupled with the fact that he's taking an ungodly number of sacks, I'm projecting the Seahawks to win 24-17.

That would mean the Seahawks covering as a 4.5-point betting favorite, and the game going Under the 45.5-point total. And for good measure, I even have Williams becoming the third defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP since 2014 (+10000 odds at FanDuel).

💰 Drake Maye Super Bowl fade parlay