Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 14: Will Tua and Herbert Lead a Shootout?
Sunday's game between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers will have major implications for the AFC playoffs. Read on for our top Dolphins-Chargers picks.
Miami’s loss at San Francisco last week snapped a season-high five-game winning streak. As a result, the Dolphins fell from the AFC's first place to the No. 5 seed, though they're tied with two other teams at 8-4, the conference's third-best record.
Los Angeles’ 27-20 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13 was its fourth consecutive road defeat against AFC West opponents. The Chargers lost three of their previous four matchups and are now 6-6, one game behind the 7-5 New York Jets for the AFC’s last wild-card spot.
Here is our best Dolphins vs. Chargers Week 14 NFL pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Dolphins vs. Chargers Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 11, 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
- Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- Weather: 53 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, 5-mph W wind
Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds
Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds Analysis
Miami opened as a -1.5 point favorite, but the spread blew through the key betting number of -3, and sits at a high of -3.5 at most sportsbooks. Money is roughly 2/1 on the Dolphins (64%) while drawing 58% of tickets.
Like the spread, the total lasted only a short time at its original number. The O/U was bet up from 51 to as high as 53.5. Though 87% of tickets are on the Over, that side also garnered just 56% of the cash.
Dolphins vs. Chargers Pick
Over 53 ★★★
Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had his worst game last week. His three turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble lost) tied a career-high and matched his turnover total in the other nine matchups this season.
A big reason for the Dolphins’ loss to the Niners was their inability to convert on third down. They went 0-for-7, with Tagovailoa taking two sacks, going 0-for-5 passing, and producing a zero QBR. However, over his first nine games, Tua took just three total sacks on third down, and his 74% completion percentage and 97 QBR were the NFL's best in that span.
The Chargers don't have nearly the same defense as the 49ers, good for Miami. L.A. is bottom five in explosive pass play percentage allowed and first-down DVOA. Tagovailoa was off-target on 27.3% of passes (second-worst of his career) against San Francisco and produced a 19.2 total QBR (fifth-lowest). However, he'll get it right against a Chargers defense that entered last week ranked 29th in pressure rate.
On the other side, Chargers QB Justin Herbert came off his 20th career game with 300+ passing yards, the most ever by a quarterback in his first three seasons. Considering Miami allowed 27+ points three times in the previous five weeks, expect L.A. to score points.
Dolphins vs. Chargers Best Odds
DraftKings (-122)
| DraftKings | 53 | Over -110, Under -110 |
| FanDuel | 53.5 | Over -106, Under -114 |
| BetMGM | 53.5 | Over -110, Under -110 |
| Caesars | 53.5 | Over -110, Under -110 |
| PointsBet | 53.5 | Over -107, Under -107 |
As Over backers, it's a no-brainer to make this wager at DraftKings, who are a half-point lower than other sportsbooks. Given that the largest wagers backed the Under, there's a chance the other sportsbooks at 53.5 lower their number slightly before kickoff.
Where to Bet on Dolphins vs. Chargers
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Dolphins vs. Chargers picks made 12/10/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
