Cowboys vs. Lions Prediction & Odds for Thursday Night Football
I'm backing the betting underdogs to pull off their fourth straight cover in my Cowboys vs. Lions prediction for Thursday Night Football at Ford Field in Detroit (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).
The Lions are the 3-point betting favorite to get back on track. As part of the NFL predictions for Week 14, I've also featured George Pickens, who is looking to extend a rather impressive streak.
Cowboys vs. Lions prediction & expert picks
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Thursday Night Football preview & score prediction
The Cowboys' defensive improvements since Quinnen Williams' arrival and safety Donovan Wilson's return to the lineup have been precipitous. In the last three games, Matt Eberflus' unit has allowed 0.6 yards fewer per play, tied for the third-largest decrease.
It is also substantially more effective in pivotal moments, decreasing the opponent's third-down conversion rate by more than 13% in the same three-game sample size. That's the second-largest decrease, with only the Jacksonville Jaguars enjoying a starker improvement.
That's one side of a two-pronged strategy to this pick. The other? Detroit's litany of debilitating offensive injuries.
Dan Campbell is down to his third-string center, with Trystan Colon taking on the responsibility for this pivotal matchup. We haven't heard confirmation regarding Amon-Ra St. Brown's status, but I'd be shocked to see him perform at peak levels even if he suits up, which is doubtful.
Neither of the team's top two tight ends will feature, with Sam LaPorta's loss the most impactful.
And while the Cowboys are just 2-4 against the spread on the road, the perfect conditions at Ford Field should be conducive to a highly productive offensive performance.
Of the best sports betting sites, bet365 offer the best value (-111), where a winning $10 bet will profit $9.01.
Score prediction: Cowboys 30, Lions 27
💡 More Week 14 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 14.
Key matchup to watch on TNF
George Pickens vs. Lions' secondary
I have no intention of getting cute with this pick. Pickens hit the Over on this total in eight of the previous nine games and seven in a row. He's averaging 112 yards per game in the current seven-game Over stretch and faces a Detroit Lions team that has issues in the secondary.
Kerby Joseph hasn't featured since Week 6, which has had clear implications on the collective.
Detroit allows the 11th-most yards per game to opposing wide receivers (154). Even more disconcertingly, it conceded 330 yards to Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, and Wan'Dale Robinson in the last two games at Ford Field.
If Pickens extends his streak to eight games, you'll receive a $9.01 profit on a winning $10 bet. bet365's -111 odds imply a 52.61% probability.
Best prop bet: George Pickens Over 77.5 receiving yards (-111 via bet365)
Our Matt Jacob is aligned on Pickens with his Cowboys vs. Lions player props for TNF. Esten McLaren backs Jalen Tolbert as a long-shot anytime touchdown scorer prediction.
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Cowboys vs. Lions betting trends
| Cowboys | Statistic | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5-1 | W-L record | 7-5 |
| 7-5 | ATS record | 6-6 |
| 8-4 | O/U record | 7-5 |
| 6.1 | Yards per play | 6.1 |
| 5.9 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2 |
| -0.4 | Turnover margin | +0.4 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
| W, 31-28 vs. Chiefs | Previous result | L, 31-24 vs. Packers |
Cowboys vs. Lions injury report
Cowboys vs. Lions weather
Ford Field is a domed stadium and is not impacted by the weather.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
How to watch Thursday Night Football: Cowboys vs. Lions
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 4
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
- TV: Prime Video
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