Cowboys vs. Lions AI Picks: TNF Predictions & Best Prop Bet for Thursday Night Football

Two NFC teams in desperate need of a win clash tonight when the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) and Detroit Lions (7-5) meet on Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), and our Cowboys vs. Lions AI predictions project a close affair at Ford Field in Detroit with a monster game from Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs.

We've trained the latest ChatGPT model to offer its exact score prediction and projected stat leaders for both teams, as well as its best TNF prop bet tonight. You can catch the rest of our (human) expert picks with our NFL Week 14 predictions.

Cowboys vs. Lions AI predictions: Thursday Night Football

See all of our NFL AI predictions for Week 14 with projected scores for every game.

Lions projected stats

• Passing leader: Jared Goff – 24/36, 286 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
• Rushing leader: Jahmyr Gibbs – 17 rushes, 88 yards, 1 TD
• Receiving leader: Jameson Williams – 6 receptions, 94 yards, 1 TD

Cowboys projected stats

• Passing leader: Dak Prescott – 27/40, 301 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
• Rushing leader: Javonte Williams – 15 rushes, 67 yards
• Receiving leader: CeeDee Lamb – 8 receptions, 104 yards, 1 TD

Cowboys vs. Lions prediction

Detroit gets a slight edge because its offense has been both explosive and consistent, averaging just over 29 points per game, with Jared Goff efficiently distributing and Jahmyr Gibbs in the middle of a true breakout season on the ground and through the air. Even if Amon-Ra St. Brown is limited or out, the Lions can lean on Gibbs and a bigger role for Jameson Williams against a Dallas defense that’s played like a pass funnel and is now dealing with injuries up front.

Dallas stays right inside the number because Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP-caliber level, near the top of the league in yards and touchdowns, and should be aggressive in a dome environment with CeeDee Lamb set up to attack a banged-up Detroit secondary. The projected high play volume and pass-heavy script on both sides support a shootout that tracks above the 54.5 total, but Detroit’s better balance and red-zone efficiency at home give it the final possession and the cover.

Score prediction: Lions 31, Cowboys 27

Best player prop bet for Thursday Night Football

See all of our experts' NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 76.5 rushing yards

Gibbs profiles as the most reliable prop angle in this matchup, given Detroit’s expected run-leaning structure against a Dallas defense that has been far more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. The Cowboys’ front has struggled with gap integrity and early-down efficiency, and Detroit’s offensive line — even when not fully healthy — has consistently generated movement and clean second-level access for Gibbs. With the Lions projected to play with pace and positive game script at home, Gibbs should see controlled, repeatable volume rather than spike-dependent production.

The projected 31–27 outcome further supports a scenario in which Detroit leans on Gibbs to close drives and sustain possessions, especially when Dallas rotates coverage to limit explosive shots downfield. Gibbs’ projected 17 carries for 88 yards reflects both his efficiency and the likelihood of Detroit protecting a late lead. In a dome environment with no weather barriers and a defense that has given up repeated chunk gains on the ground, Gibbs’ rushing yards prop is the cleanest statistical match for the expected game flow.

Best bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 76.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel)

How to watch Thursday Night Football: Cowboys vs. Lions

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 4
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
• TV: Prime Video