Commanders vs. Chiefs Prediction & Odds for Monday Night Football: NFL Week 8 Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs look to keep on rolling when they face the Washington Commanders, and my Commanders vs. Chiefs prediction backs the home betting favorite to come out on top as part of our NFL picks. 

The Chiefs are the 11.5-point betting favorite, according to the Monday Night Football odds.  My analysis below, part of the NFL predictions for Week 8, also features Rashee Rice. Monday's game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., starts at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN).  

📊 Commanders vs. Chiefs odds: Monday Night Football

See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 8.

✅ Commanders vs. Chiefs expert picks

See our experts' NFL picks for every Week 8 game.

🏈 Monday Night Football preview & score prediction

For the Commanders, playing the Chiefs at Arrowhead at this juncture of the season represents a nightmare matchup.

Not only is Jayden Daniels unavailable due to injury, but they are facing a defense that allowed more than 300 yards of total offense just once in four home games, against a Baltimore Ravens team that accumulated a chunk of its yards after the game had long been decided. 

In addition, Steve Spagnuolo's defense hasn't conceded more than 20 points at Arrowhead. 

Chiefs' offense is rolling; Commanders' defense is struggling

If the Chiefs' defense is hot, their offense, led by NFL MVP odds favorite Patrick Mahomes, is scalding. In terms of offensive DVOA and EPA per play, they rank second. The unit accumulated at least 355 total yards in four straight games, averaging 412.

That's bottom-of-the-barrel news for a Commanders defense that has allowed at least 336 yards of total offense in six straight games, averaging 386.5 in that stint. 

The Chiefs' margin of victory at Arrowhead during their current three-game win streak is 20.3.

Of the best sports betting sites, DraftKings offers the best value (-108). Those odds imply a 51.92% probability, and a winning $10 wager will yield a $9.26 profit. 

✅ Score prediction: Chiefs 34, Commanders 18

🆚 Key matchup to watch on MNF

Rashee Rice vs. Commanders secondary 

Rice has one game under his belt this season, in which he caught seven passes on 10 targets against the Las Vegas Raiders. Usually, you'd expect more than 42 receiving yards in that scenario.

Still, the number of times Mahomes targeted him is telling, and I expect more of the same against a Commanders secondary that allows the seventh-most yards per game to opposing wide receivers (161.43). 

That unit allowed 192 receiving yards last week in Dallas to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Mahomes spread the ball well last week, connecting with nine receivers. While I expect him to vary his targets similarly, he should look to involve Rice as much in the offense as he did last week. 

BetMGM offers the lowest total (66.5 yards) and palatable -115 odds, which carry a 53.49% implied probability. At the low end of the market, Caesars offers a 67.5-yard total at -120 odds. A winning $10 bet at BetMGM will yield an $8.70 profit. 

✅ Best player prop bet: Rice Over 66.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM)

📈 Commanders vs. Chiefs betting trends

🚑 Commanders vs. Chiefs injury report

🌤️ Commanders vs. Chiefs weather

There's a decent chance of rain (35%) in the forecast, according to NFLweather.com, for the MNF clash. However, even if it rains, it won't be enough, less than 1 mm by the latest estimations, to impact either offensive performance. The 15 mph wind gusts could have a minor impact on field goal accuracy. 

The 52-degree weather is cool but ideal. 

Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game.

📺 How to watch Monday Night Football: Commanders vs. Chiefs

• Date: Monday, Oct. 27
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• How to watch: ESPN