Colts vs. Chiefs Player Props: Best Bets & TD Picks for NFL Week 12

My Colts vs. Chiefs player props break down this huge AFC matchup that kicks off from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday afternoon (CBS).

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point betting favorite, and their playoff chances would improve to 67% with a win and drop to 36% with a loss. That 31% difference is the largest of any team this week.

My NFL Week 12 predictions focus on three of the game’s biggest stars, including each team’s starting quarterback and a future Canton-bound tight end.

✅ Colts vs. Chiefs player prop bets

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 12.

💰 Best Colts vs. Chiefs player props

⬆️ Daniel Jones player prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-116) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has thrown four interceptions over the last two games after beginning the season with just three picks over the first eight contests.

The Chiefs have allowed just nine passing touchdowns, which is tied for the fewest in the NFL. But Jones’ Under of 1.5 passing touchdowns is juiced as high as -210 at 67.74% implied odds, so the much better return is by backing him to throw an interception. 

If Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones once again ties a season high with five quarterback pressures and a sack like he did last week, there is a great chance the defense can rattle Daniel Jones into throwing another interception.

A $10 winning wager through DraftKings’ -116 odds would net $8.62 in profits.

⬇️ Patrick Mahomes player prop: Longest pass completion Under 37.5 yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Last week against the Broncos, Patrick Mahomes went 1-for-9 with an interception on passes of at least 15 yards downfield. While that one completion went for 61 yards, it does not bode well that Mahomes has completed just 42.1% of his passes of 15-plus air yards on the season (18th-best among qualified quarterbacks).

The Colts funnel a lot of throws through the slot, which we dive more into with our touchdown scorer bet. And Kansas City’s biggest perimeter threat, Xavier Worthy, was only a limited participant in practice as of Thursday.

Caesars is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering better than a price of -115 at 53.49% implied odds to back the Under. If Mahomes’ longest completion goes for 37 or fewer yards, my $10 winning wager would return $8.77 in profits.

6️⃣ Best Colts vs. Chiefs touchdown scorer bet

🔥 Travis Kelce TD pick: Anytime touchown scorer (+145) ⭐⭐⭐

The Colts have allowed 38% of their targets faced to come against slot receivers, the third-highest of all NFL defenses. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce leads the team in routes run from the slot and has been on fire with 90 or more receiving yards in two of the last three games. 

Kelce has paid off that usage with a touchdown in each of those 90-yard games, but he should see plenty of red-zone targets regardless of how high he runs his receiving yardage total.

FanDuel’s +145 anytime touchdown odds would net $14.50 in profits on a winning $10 wager if Kelce scores for the third time in four weeks.

📊 Colts vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 12.

📺 How to watch Colts vs. Chiefs

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 23
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: CBS