Chiefs vs. Chargers Early Predictions, Picks & Odds for Week 1

It's off to Brazil for the second game of the NFL season as Gary Pearson explores the best bet and early betting lines for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: September 1, 2025 9:48 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Chiefs vs. Chargers Early Predictions, Picks & Odds for Week 1 — Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs players on the sideline during the preseason. Photo by Denny Medley via Imagn Images.

The NFL heads to Sao Paulo, Brazil, for the second time in as many seasons, with Arena Corinthians the venue when the Kansas City Chiefs face the Los Angeles Chargers on Friday (8 p.m. ET, YouTube).

My Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions, part of the NFL picks, highlight a best bet for the Week 1 clash, which focuses on whether to back the Over or Under.

The Chiefs are the 3-point betting favorite against their division rivals.

📈Chiefs vs. Chargers early odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 1 game.

Chiefs vs. Chargers opening odds

Moneyline: Chiefs -150 | Chargers +125
Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-115) | Chargers +2.5 (-105)
Over/Under: O45.5 (-110) | U45.5 (-110)

Chiefs vs. Chargers odds analysis

The Chiefs are the 3-point betting favorite across our best sports betting apps. Backing the Chargers would become altogether more appealing if the line were to move to -3.5. The best sportsbooks have reached a consensus with the 45.5-point total. I wouldn't feel confident about backing the Under if the line drops below 44.5.

💰 Best Chiefs vs. Chargers early predictions

🔎 NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Prediction: Under 45.5 ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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A pair of defenses that finished in the top third of defensive DVOA last season aim to replicate their performance from when these teams met last season. The Under cashed in both meetings, with the Chiefs winning 17-10 in Los Angeles and 19-17 in Kansas City.

Much of the Chiefs' defense, the 12th-best in terms of DVOA last season, remains intact. Steve Spagnuolo's unit, which allowed the sixth-fewest points per game (20.5), stymied a relatively stagnant Chargers offense.

Jim Harbaugh has made significant improvements to his offense by drafting KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Oronde Gadsden II while landing Najee Harris and Keenan Allen. However, I'm unconvinced by an offensive line that had the worst pass-block rating last season, according to PFF, and lost star left tackle Rashawn Slater to injury.

The Chargers' defense, meanwhile, might be inferior to last season's after losing Joey Bosa and Poona Ford. The prospective regression should be relatively minor, though, as we're talking about last season's second-best scoring defense (18.5 points allowed per game).

I'm also concerned about Patrick Mahomes' offensive line on the blind side, with first-round pick Josh Simmons and new left guard Kingsley Suamataia tasked to protect their MVP odds contender.

The Under cashed in seven of the Chargers' first eight games last season, and I expect a similar encounter from their previous two meetings with the Chiefs.

Our best sports betting apps align with the 45.5-point total, with every one except FanDuel (-115) offering the standard -110 juice.

🚑 Chiefs vs. Chargers injuries to watch

📺 How to watch Chiefs vs. Chargers

When: Friday, Sept. 5
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
Where: Arena Corinthians (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
How to watch: YouTube
Weather: 41 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 10 mph to 15 mph
Favorite: Chiefs -3 (-114 via FanDuel)

📃 NFL betting odds pages

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❓ NFL betting FAQs

What does the spread mean in betting NFL?

In NFL betting, the spread is the number of points a team is favored to win or lose by. It levels the playing field for bettors by giving an advantage or disadvantage in points. Bettors win if their pick covers the spread.

Where can I find top NFL betting odds?

Make sure you look at our top NFL betting sites to find the best odds for NFL Sunday. These sportsbooks include Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, FanDuel, and DraftKings.

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.