Early Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction, Odds & Picks: Week 1 NFL, Sept. 5
My early Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions as part of our NFL predictions for Week 1 breaks down the NFL's return to Brazil in Friday's AFC West-rivalry clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. Kickoff from Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo is slated for 8 p.m. ET (YouTube).
Kansas City opened as a 2.5-point betting favorite, but that number has been bet up to the key number of 3 just one day out. However, my NFL picks for the season's second game instead look to the total.
💰 Early Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction & best bet
Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL predictions.
⬇️ Under 45.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
A pair of defenses that finished in the top third of defensive DVOA last season aim to replicate their performance from when these teams met last season. The Under cashed in both meetings, with the Chiefs winning 17-10 in Los Angeles and 19-17 in Kansas City.
Much of the Chiefs' defense, the 12th-best in terms of DVOA last season, remains intact. Steve Spagnuolo's unit, which allowed the sixth-fewest points per game (20.5), stymied a relatively stagnant Chargers offense.
Jim Harbaugh has made significant improvements to his offense by drafting KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Oronde Gadsden II while landing Najee Harris and Keenan Allen. However, I'm unconvinced by an offensive line that had the worst pass-block rating last season, according to PFF, and lost star left tackle Rashawn Slater to injury.
The Chargers' defense, meanwhile, might be inferior to last season's after losing Joey Bosa and Poona Ford. The prospective regression should be relatively minor, though, as we're talking about last season's second-best scoring defense (18.5 points allowed per game).
I'm also concerned about Patrick Mahomes' offensive line on the blind side, with first-round pick Josh Simmons and new left guard Kingsley Suamataia tasked to protect their MVP odds contender.
The Under cashed in seven of the Chargers' first eight games last season, and I expect a similar encounter from their previous two meetings with the Chiefs.
Our best sports betting apps are mostly in line with the 45.5-point total, and FanDuel has the best price on it as of Tuesday afternoon at -108.
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📊 Chiefs vs. Chargers odds: Week 1
NFL odds update live in real time.
📈 Chiefs vs. Chargers opening odds
- Moneyline: Chiefs -150 | Chargers +125
- Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-115) | Chargers +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: O45.5 (-110) | U45.5 (-110)
🔍 Chiefs vs. Chargers odds analysis
The Chiefs are the 3-point betting favorite across our best sports betting apps as of Thursday morning. There was a while earlier in the week when you could get the Chargers +3.5, and they're clearly more appealing at that spread. Most sportsbooks have increased the total to 47.5 points, making my Under play even more attractive.
⛅ Chiefs vs. Chargers weather watch
There's a chance of some rain in Sao Paulo on Friday night, but it's expected to be minimal. However, that could make what is already considered a slick field surface at Corinthians Arena even slippier. Check out Liam Fox's full NFL weather report, where we're keeping an eye on the forecast for all 12 outdoor games ahead of this weekend.
🚑 Chiefs vs. Chargers injury report
📺 How to watch Chiefs vs. Chargers
- When: Friday, Sept. 5
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Arena Corinthians (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
- How to watch: YouTube
💡 NFL predictions for Week 1
- Early Cowboys vs. Eagles prediction
- Early Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction
- Early Ravens vs. Bills prediction
- Early Vikings vs. Bears prediction
❓ Chiefs vs. Chargers FAQs
Who is favored to win Chiefs vs. Chargers?
The Chiefs are the -168 favorite to beat the Chargers with those odds implying a 62.69% win probability with a $10 bet returning a $5.95 profit. The Chargers feature moneyline odds of +145, implying a 40.82% chance to win with a $14.50 profit on a $10 bet.
What are the opening odds for Chiefs vs. Chargers?
The Chiefs opened as a 3-point betting favorite to beat the Chargers in Week 1. The total opened at 45.5 points.
How do NFL odds work?
When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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