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Roy Robertson-Harris tackles Matt Ryan in the fourth quarter at TIAA Bank Field.
Roy Robertson-Harris tackles Matt Ryan in the fourth quarter at TIAA Bank Field. Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images via AFP.

Can the winless Indianapolis Colts surprise the Kansas City Chiefs once again? Have a look at our top NFL picks for Chiefs-Colts in Week 3.

Preseason favorites to win the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1) suddenly find themselves in the division basement and are big home underdogs to the Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) in Week 3. However, Indy won the last meeting between these teams in 2019, downing the Chiefs 19-13 at Arrowhead Stadium.

Here are our top Chiefs-Colts picks and predictions for NFL Week 3 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chiefs vs Colts Game Info

Date: Sunday, Sept 25, 1 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Weather: Indoors

Chiefs vs Colts Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers adjusted this point spread from 3 to as high as 6.5 following last week’s games, but it still wasn’t big enough of a move to discourage bettors from piling on the Chiefs. Kansas City had drawn 80% of the tickets and 72% of the handle as of Wednesday afternoon, and it’s possible that we could see KC as a full touchdown favorite — or higher — by kickoff.

The total has seen strong movement toward the Under, dropping to as low as 49 from an opener of 52. Fifty-three percent of the tickets are in support of the Over but 70% of the cash is on the Under.

Chiefs vs Colts Picks

  • Spread: Colts +6.5 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★
  • Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Prop: Jonathan Taylor Over 15.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★

Chiefs vs Colts ATS Pick

Colts +6.5 (-110) ★★★★

When you’re in a division with the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and 0-2 Tennessee Titans, not all hope is lost after an 0-1-1 start. But after barely missing out on the playoffs last year because of a 1-4 start, the Colts sound like a desperate bunch — not to mention embarrassed as well.

Head coach Frank Reich publicly referred to last week’s 24-0 loss to the Jags as “pathetic”, and running back Nyheim Hines told reporters that he felt his team let both Reich and the entire state of Indiana down.

As good as KC has looked this year, there isn’t a touchdown difference in talent between these rosters for a game in Indianapolis. The Colts were just 3-point underdogs on the early lookahead lines, and they should bring a lot more urgency to the field than the 2-0 Chiefs. Reich led Indy to an upset victory of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs three years ago as 10.5-point underdogs, and it shouldn’t be a total shock if he does it again on Sunday.

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Chiefs vs. Colts O/U Pick

Over 49.5 (-110) ★★★★

When the Colts beat Kansas City in 2019, Indy played keepaway, running the ball on more than 60% of its plays and controlling the ball for 37 minutes. That’s precisely the game plan we should expect from Indianapolis again in order to prevent Mahomes from having too many opportunities to make a game-changing play.

The Colts are also dealing with injuries to receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce, while quarterback Matt Ryan is nursing a sore hand — all the more reason to steadily hand the ball off to Jonathan Taylor.

While betting an Under in a Kansas City game is never a great feeling, the Chiefs did score just two offensive touchdowns last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, scoring their other points on a 99-yard interception return and a pair of field goals.

Chiefs vs. Colts Prop Pick

Taylor Over 15.5 receiving yards (-115) ★★

Taylor collected 54 yards on just nine rushing attempts last week in Jacksonville, and you can be sure the Colts' coaching staff wants to make sure he’s a lot more involved this week. However, I’m not convinced that all of that damage will come on the ground against a KC run defense that is better than many think, bottling up Austin Ekeler last week after limiting Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner to 26 rushing yards in Week 1.

If Taylor’s not able to get it going on the ground or KC is stacking eight in the box, the Colts will have to get creative to get their top weapon the ball. Taylor hasn’t been a big receiving threat lately, going Under his receiving yards prop total in 13 of his last 17 outings, but that helps give us a low number to work with in a game where the Colts should try to get him more active in the passing attack.

Where to Bet Chiefs-Colts Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Chiefs-Colts picks made 9/21/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET