Bills vs. Texans Player Props for Thursday Night Football: NFL Week 12

Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off with Thursday Night Football, and I’m aiming to nail all three of my Bills vs. Texans player props, which target Buffalo’s two biggest offensive stars — James Cook III and Josh Allen — as well as a little-known Houston running back.

Buffalo is a consensus 6-point betting favorite for this AFC battle from NRG Stadium in Houston (8:20 p.m. ET, Prime Video), and my three wagering recommendations are part of our slew of NFL predictions for Week 12.

✅ Bills vs. Texans player prop bets

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 12.

💰 Best Thursday Night Football player props

⬇️ James Cook III player prop: Under 75.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I could start and end the analysis on this Thursday Night Football player prop with one sentence: Not a single opposing player — not one — has rushed for more 71 yards against the Houston Texans this year. Need more convincing? OK, only five players have even reached 60 yards against Houston: Bucky Irving (71 yards), Kyren Williams (66), Kenneth Walker III (66), J.K. Dobbins (61) and Tony Pollard (64). 

I know, Buffalo’s James Cook is currently the NFL’s second-leading rushing with 968 yards. I also know that Houston’s front seven is a bit banged up. Still, I’m supremely confident the Texans will contain Cook — who might have hit a midseason wall: He rushed for only 53 and 48 yards on 29 total carries in his last two games (3.5 yards per rush).

BetMGM’s -115 price equates to a 53.49% implied win probability. Risk $10 to win $8.70.

⬆️ Woody Marks player prop: Over 61.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

You won’t find Woody Marks’ name anywhere near Cook’s on the NFL’s rushing leaderboard. Still, he’s been serviceable since taking over the backfield chores for Houston in Week 4. Marks had 69 yards against the Titans, 62 against the 49ers and 63 against the Jaguars.

You know what Tennessee, San Francisco and Jacksonville have in common? They’re all better at stopping the run than Buffalo. Heck, 30 of the other 31 franchises stuff opposing running backs better than the Bills, who yield 153 ground yards per game. Will Marks hit the century mark like Tampa Bay’s Sean Tucker (106 yards) and Miami’s De’Von Achane (174) did the last two weeks versus Buffalo? Probably not. Will he surge past 60? Yep.

BetMGM has the optimal number on this Bills vs. Texans player prop. Lay -110 odds for a 52.38% implied win probability. Collect $9.09 on a successful $10 wager.

⬇️ Josh Allen player prop: Under 225.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐

Skeptics will look at Houston’s sensational defensive statistics and level this criticism: They haven’t faced many quality quarterbacks. It’s fair. Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Trevor Lawrence are the best QBs that have taken aim at the Texans’ stout secondary.

Of that quartet, only Stafford logged more than 222 passing yards (he had 245 in Week 1). Lawrence, Mayfield and Darnold had 222, 215 and 213, respectively. Nobody else has cracked 200. Granted, Josh Allen erupted the last three weeks against Kansas City (273 yards), Miami (306) and Tampa Bay (317) — his most prolific outings of 2025. But he averaged 194 passing yards in his previous six starts. He also had just 131 at Houston a year ago.

DraftKings has the superior number on this Thursday Night Football player prop. The implied win probability at -113 odds is 53.05%. A winning $10 wager will return $8.85.

📺 How to watch Thursday Night Football: Bills vs. Texans

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 20
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: NRG Stadium (Houston)
• TV: Prime Video