Bills vs. Texans AI Picks: TNF Predictions & Best Bet for Thursday Night Football Tonight

NFL Week 12 kicks off tonight with the Buffalo Bills (7-3) and Houston Texans (5-5) facing off on Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), and our Bills vs. Texans AI predictions expect the road favorites to make a statement at NRG Stadium in Houston.

We've trained the latest ChatGPT model to offer its exact score prediction and projected stat leaders for both teams, as well as its best TNF prop bet tonight as part of our NFL Week 12 predictions.

🤖 Bills vs. Texans AI predictions: Thursday Night Football

See all of our NFL AI predictions with projected scores for every Week 12 game.

🔢 Bills projected stats

• Passing leader: Josh Allen – 24/34, 279 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
• Rushing leader: James Cook – 17 rushes, 82 yards, 1 TD
• Receiving leader: Khalil Shakir – 7 receptions, 94 yards, 1 TD

🔢 Texans projected stats

• Passing leader: Davis Mills – 22/32, 231 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• Rushing leader: Woody Marks – 14 rushes, 68 yards
• Receiving leader: Nico Collins – 6 receptions, 79 yards, 1 TD

🔮 Bills vs. Texans prediction

Buffalo comes in with serious momentum and a roster advantage built around Josh Allen’s dual-threat ability and James Cook’s efficiency on early downs. Houston, meanwhile, is dealing with a major QB change: C.J. Stroud will miss this game, and Davis Mills gets the nod. That instability favors Buffalo’s disruptive front, which should control the line of scrimmage and force the Texans into longer drives. The Bills’ ability to convert in the red zone and minimize turnovers gives them the edge in a game that looks competitive but tilts toward Buffalo’s structure.

Houston still has playmaking potential via Nico Collins and Woody Marks, and at home they’ll fight to stay within range. But the backup QB status and Buffalo’s defensive depth present a steep uphill climb. Early establishment of the run game by Cook and efficient passing by Allen set the tone; Houston may have flashes, but the Bills’ consistency in both thirds and red zone seals the outcome. Expect Buffalo to crack 30 and cover, while the Texans hit a few splash plays but fall short in the finish.

Score prediction: Bills 31, Texans 23

💰 Best player prop bet for Thursday Night Football

See all of our experts' NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds.

⬆️ Khalil Shakir Over 43.5 receiving yards

Khalil Shakir has stepped into Buffalo’s WR1-by-usage role over the last month, and the matchup tilts heavily toward another strong outing. Houston's defense isn't at full strength with Jalen Pitre (concussion) out for the third straight week, so with Dalton Kincaid drawing safety attention and the Texans’ defense weakened, Shakir should again see a healthy dose of intermediate targets from Allen.

More importantly, Shakir’s projected stat line from the simulation — 7 catches for 94 yards and 1 TD — isn’t an outlier. It reflects continued chemistry with Allen and a Texans defense on its heels playing catch-up with Mills starting in place of Stroud. Buffalo is likely to sustain long drives, and Shakir’s role as the primary chain-mover and YAC threat meshes perfectly with how this game is expected to flow. Anything below 45 receiving yards is value on the Over.

Best bet: Khalil Shakir Over 43.5 receiving yards (-125 via BetMGM)

💰 More Bills vs. Texans picks for Thursday Night Football

• Bills vs. Texans prediction
• Bills vs. Texans player props
• Bills vs. Texans same-game parlay
• Josh Allen player prop bets
• Davis Mills player prop bets
• Bills vs. Texans anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• Bills vs. Texans first touchdown scorer predictions
• Bills vs. Texans AI predictions
• Bills vs. Texans best bets

📺 How to watch Thursday Night Football: Bills vs. Texans

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 20
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: NRG Stadium (Houston)
• TV: Prime Video