Bills vs. Falcons Prediction: Monday Night Football Opening Odds & Early MNF Picks
My best Bills vs. Falcons prediction, based on the opening odds for next Monday’s 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, focuses on the Bills bouncing back from their first loss of the season on Monday Night Football. The Bills are favored by 4.5 points and are one of the public’s favorite early picks (64%).
My best NFL picks for this game agree with the public, as I expect the Bills to cover against a mediocre Falcons offense. For more on this game and all of the slate's top matchups, check out our NFL predictions for Week 6.
🏈 Early Bills vs. Falcons prediction & best bet
Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL predictions for Week 6.
🦬 Bills -4.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Bills still have the fifth-worst rush defense in the NFL, but they held the Patriots to just 71 yards on 22 carries. Bijan Robinson, who has 314 yards on 64 carries (4.9 per attempt), will pose a serious challenge, but if the Bills build a lead, Michael Penix Jr. won’t be able to keep up with Josh Allen.
Penix has thrown three interceptions in his last two games, and he’s completing just 62.4% of his passes, which ranks 25th. Allen has led his team to at least 30 points in all but last week’s game, while the Falcons have managed 30 just once, and it was against a beat-up Commanders team.
BetMGM’s price of -110 for -4.5 suggests a 52.38% chance the Bills cover. A $10 bet would pay $9.09.
📺️ How to watch Monday Night Football
Matchup: Bills vs. Falcons
When: Monday, Oct. 13 @ 7:15 p.m. ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
TV: ESPN
📊 Bills vs. Falcons odds: Monday Night Football
Latest NFL odds updated live in real time.
📈 Bills vs. Falcons opening odds
- Moneyline: Bills -250 | Falcons +200
- Spread: Bills -5.5 (-110) | Falcons -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)
💡 Bills vs. Falcons odds analysis
Most bettors (64%) are backing the Bills, but after Sunday night’s loss, the spread has dropped to Buffalo -4.5. I expect the spread to climb back to 5.5, but there’s no chance it hits 7. I don’t think this number will ever get lower than it is, so if you’re on the Bills, get in now.
The total is set at 50.5. The Falcons are averaging just 19 points per game but are facing a defense allowing 22.6 per contest. Considering the Bills are averaging over 30 per game, I’d lean toward the Over at the current number.
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