NFL Betting Trends to Know for Week 13: Will Kansas City Continue November/December Winning Streak?
The Kansas City Chiefs are in the midst of an unprecedented winning streak in November and December, but can they beat the team that sent them packing in last year’s AFC Championship Game? We dive into that and more in our list of Week 13 trends to know in the NFL.
One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand.
For example, head-to-head data between two teams dating back to the 1970s provide little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.
Here are our top NFL trends to know for Week 13 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 13
Chiefs (-150) ML vs. Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs have won 26 consecutive games in November and December.
It is difficult to beat the Chiefs in any month, especially since last week’s win over the Los Angeles Rams secured their 10th consecutive season with a winning streak of at least five games. During that streak, Patrick Mahomes won his sixth straight game when trailing at halftime when he led his team from down seven points to beat the L.A. Chargers two weeks ago.
That was one of 26 consecutive Kansas City wins in November and December, making three seasons for Mahomes and the Chiefs without a regular season loss in those months.
Now the Chiefs get a date with the Cincinnati Bengals, who beat them in Arrowhead Stadium in last year’s AFC Championship Game. Cincinnati has won seven of its previous nine games since an 0-2 start. In addition, in non-divisional games this season, Joe Burrow is 6-1 with seven total touchdowns and zero turnovers.
Texans (+7) vs. Browns, Rams (+8) vs. Seahawks
Home underdogs of seven or more points are 7-0 ATS this season.
This week’s games between the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns, and Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are the only ones to fit this trend this week, but keep an eye on the Buffalo Bills-New England Patriots line if it somehow creeps up higher than Buffalo -5.5.
Last week had one such game on its schedule, when Detroit easily covered as 9.5-point underdogs against Buffalo on Thanksgiving in a game it easily could have won outright.
Adding to this trend, favorites of a touchdown or more are 16-25-1 ATS this season (4-2 last week).
Cleveland is coming off a historic victory against Tampa Bay for multiple reasons. It was the Browns’ first overtime victory via touchdown since 1991, and it was the first time ever a Tom Brady-led team lost a game (had been 218-0) when holding a seven-point lead in the final two minutes of regulation.
Houston has scored 14.7 points per game during its current six-game losing streak and is off to its worst start (1-9-1) since 2005.
The Rams are off to the worst ATS start (2-7-2) for a defending Super Bowl champion since the Packers covered one of their first 10 games in 1997.
Bills-Patriots Under 44.5
All six Bills road games this season have gone Under the projected total
The Bills are one of the most profitable Under teams in the league, not just in road games, cashing the Under in eight of their 11 games overall. These two teams met in Week 16 and the wild-card round last season, and both games easily cashed the Over. The combined scores of the two games were 54 and 64, and both had projected 43.5-point totals (one of those games was played in Foxborough).
From a moneyline and point spread perspective, Josh Allen is 4-0 SU in his career on Thursday's (including a 2-0 record this year), and New England had covered three consecutive games before losing 33-26 as 2.5-point underdogs against Minnesota.
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