NFL Best Bets for Week 7: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

After the Cincinnati Bengals picked up a victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday, just two of the 14 remaining games are between divisional opponents, giving us a unique perspective with which to make our NFL best bets for Week 7.

My NFL picks involve plays on my two favorite totals of the week, and I expect this to be the week for a bounce-back performance from one of the league’s most talented running backs. My NFL predictions for Week 7 also showcase an anytime touchdown scorer and an ATS teaser.

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🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 7

NFL best bets for Week 7; odds subject to change.

• Buccaneers +11.5/Broncos -1 six-point teaser (-134 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Cowboys-Commanders Over 54.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Texans-Seahawks Under 41.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Saquon Barkley Over 68.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Quinshon Judkins anytime touchdown scorer (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🧭 + 🐎 Buccaneers +11.5/Broncos -1 six-point teaser (-134) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have dealt with their share of injuries over the last few weeks, particularly in their wide receiver group, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka all missing time. But that has not stopped quarterback Baker Mayfield from completing 82.1% of his passes and totaling a 4-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the last two weeks.

Mayfield’s eight touchdowns on throws of 20-plus yards downfield are tied with Patrick Mahomes from 2019 for the most by a quarterback through his team’s first six games in the last 20 seasons. That should put pressure on a Detroit Lions defense that was without two injured starting cornerbacks last week, and now has safety Brian Branch serving a one-game suspension this week.

The second leg of this teaser brings the Denver Broncos' seven-point spread down to -1. They're coming off a dominant defensive performance against the New York Jets, where they held New York to minus-10 net passing yards (the worst by any team in the last 27 seasons) and without an explosive play (the first time an NFL offense went a game without an explosive play since 2010). 

FanDuel offers the best odds for this six-point teaser, as it was the only one of our best sports betting sites charging -105 odds (less than the standard -110 juice at a 52.38% implied probability) to back Tampa Bay at +5.5. If both legs of this teaser cash, my $10 winning wager would return $7.46 in profits.

⬆️ Cowboys-Commanders Over 54.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Dallas Cowboys are one of two teams to enter Week 7 ranked in the bottom five in both pass and rush yards per game allowed. Dallas is also the league’s worst scoring defense (30.7 points per game), has allowed the most first downs (145), and the most points allowed in the fourth quarter (64). 

Dallas should have issues containing Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels’ 44.0 rushing yards per game average ranks second-most among quarterbacks, and the Cowboys have allowed the most yards and touchdowns to opposing signal callers.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys' offense ranks 11th in red-zone touchdown percentage. And quarterback Dak Prescott has a tasty matchup as a top-three quarterback in passing yards per game, facing a Commanders defense that has allowed the third-most yards per pass attempt.

While all other best sports betting apps are charging -115 or more in juice at 53.49% implied odds to back the Over, bet365 returns the best value. Its -110 odds would net $9.09 in profits on a $10 wager if the Over cashes.

⬇️ Texans-Seahawks Under 41.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Seattle Seahawks defense is coming off a game where it sacked Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence seven times, while holding Jacksonville to season lows in points (12), yards (273), and rush yards (59).

Seattle’s defense now ranks in the top two in the league in yards per rush allowed, yards per rush after contact, and rushing touchdowns allowed. In fact, it is on pace to break its franchise record for yards per rush allowed in a season (currently allowing 3.3 yards per carry). 

The Houston Texans have traveled twice to Seattle in franchise history, allowing 83 combined points in losses in 2005 and 2017. But this year’s Texans defense leads the league in points per game allowed (12.2), setting up what should be a defensive struggle on Monday Night Football.

Paying up slightly for the extra juice and 53.49% implied odds at DraftKings is worth it, as it is the only operator offering the best sportsbook promos where one can find a total higher than 41. If the Under cashes, my winning $10 wager would net $8.70 in profits.

💰 Best NFL player prop bets for Week 7

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Saquon Barkley Over 68.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is too talented to continue his trend of rushing for 60 or fewer yards like he has in five of six games, and I am banking on this being the week the Eagles offense gets him going.

Barkley faces a Minnesota Vikings rush defense that ranks 24th in rush yards per game (132.2), 22nd in yards per rush (4.5), and 25th in Defensive Rush EPA (-0.1). 

In 2024, Barkley averaged 4.2 yards before contact per rush, 2.9 10-yard rushes per game, and 1.1 20-yard rushes per game. Those numbers are down to 2.0 yards per contact before rush, 1.8 10-yard rushes per game, and zero 20-yard rushes per game this season. 

But these odds are too good to pass up as a best NFL player prop bet for Week 7. Barkley’s O/U for rushing yards is as high as 70.5 and juiced to -117 at 53.92% implied odds for the Over. That is why I am headed to BetMGM to take advantage of the best price and number, where a $10 winning wager would net $8.70 in profits.

🔥 Quinshon Judkins anytime touchdown scorer (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Since Dillon Gabriel became the Cleveland Browns' starting quarterback, they have the sixth-highest pass rate in the league. But a lot of that has had to do with negative game script, which should not rear its ugly head this week with the Browns being a 2.5-point betting favorite against the Miami Dolphins.

Browns running back Quinshon Judkins faces a Dolphins defense that allows the most rushing yards per game to running backs (134.3). 

Judkins’ role is expanding, having played nearly 60% of the snaps and totaled 80% of the rushing attempts in Weeks 3-5, while averaging 4.6 yards per carry in that span.  

This is a four-star anytime touchdown scorer play, as Miami has allowed three different running backs to rush for 100 or more yards, and has been gashed by Kimani Vidal and Rico Dowdle in the last two weeks.

Judkins’ anytime touchdown odds are juiced as high as -150 at 60% implied odds at Caesars. Thus, the best return is through FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would net $9.09 in profits if Judkins finds the endzone.