NFL Best Bets for Week 12: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

After cashing all of my player prop wagers last week, I am back to build off of that momentum with my NFL best bets for Week 12. 

My NFL Week 12 predictions involve my best O/U play in a divisional contest, and expects one of the league’s most explosive offenses to get right after a poor showing last week. From a player prop perspective, I have identified two plus-money anytime touchdown wagers holding great value on an underrated running back, and a tight end on a tear of late.

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 12

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 12 based on the latest NFL odds.

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

⬇️ Vikings-Packers Under 41.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This total has plummeted from a lookahead line of 45.5 points last week, but there is still value in the Under at this much lower number.

Minnesota may have made a huge mistake letting Sam Darnold walk to make room for J.J. McCarthy. Among 35 quarterbacks with five or more starts this season, McCarthy owns the lowest Total QBR (27), worst completion percentage (53%), the highest interception percentage (6.0%), the worst touchdown-to-interception ratio (6-8), and the second-worst off-target percentage (22%). 

McCarthy’s ineptitude is a big reason the Vikings offense owns the second-worst third-down percentage (31.4%). Things should not get easier when facing a Packers defense that has allowed 20 or fewer points in seven of the first 10 games.

FanDuel is the only top sports betting site charging less than -118 odds (54.13% implied probability) to back the Under of 41.5. If the Under cashes, it would net $8.70 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

⬆️ Lions team total Over 30.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I am buying low on Detroit’s offense as my most confident five-star NFL prediction, as its poor showing in a nine-point output in Philadelphia last week was largely a product of high winds neutralizing any passing threat.

The Lions passing attack should get right against a Giants defense that has allowed the  fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, and the third-most receiving yards on deep passes.

Jared Goff’s 21 passing touchdowns are tied for the second-most in the league. 

While his Total QBR of 9.0 ranks 29th when under pressure, New York generates sacks and pressure at a below average rate. In addition, Goff has a 30-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio against man coverage since the start of last season, and the Giants deploy man coverage at the league’s highest rate.

The team total Over of 30.5 is juiced as high as -120 at 54.55% implied odds at the high end of the market. So I am taking advantage of the best return through FanDuel’s -115 odds, which would net $8.70 in profits on a winning $10 wager if Detroit scores at least 31 points.

🐏 Rams -6.5 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

The Rams defense has been on fire this season, ranking second in points per game allowed (17.2), first in Efficiency (72.2), tied for second in takeaways (18), and first in touchdowns allowed (16). Los Angeles is also stingy in the red zone, allowing the second-fewest percentage of touchdowns on opponents’ red zone trips (44%).

Meanwhile, this is a bad matchup for a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards per game since Week 6. It also has had difficulty preventing explosive plays, allowing 37 pass plays of at least 20 yards this season (t-29th).

I am backing the Rams at anything under a touchdown in case the line does tick up to -7, which it may as evidenced by the -120 juice at 54.55% implied odds at several top sports betting sites. Caesars’ -114 odds return a better payout in comparison ($8.77 profit on a winning $10 wager).

💰 Best NFL player props for Week 12

🔥 Mark Andrews player prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+155) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a dream matchup against the Jets for Ravens tight end Mark Andrews, who is benefitting greatly from having Lamar Jackson back under center.

Andrews has scored four touchdowns in games with Jackson as the starting quarterback, and his three receiving scores since Week 9 are tied for the most among all tight ends. 

The +155 odds at Caesars carry a 39.22% implied probability, but is of great value considering the Jets are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season. If Andrews scores at least once for the third time in four games, my $10 winning wager would net $15.50 in profits.

🔥 Bhayshul Tuten player prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+105) ⭐⭐⭐

Has the Bhayshul Tuten takeover of the Jaguars backfield officially started? Tuten has averaged 10.0 touches per game over the last three games, which is a huge increase in usage from his 5.4 touches per game through the first seven.

Tuten is coming off season-highs in snaps, carries, and rushing yards last week, and paid that usage off with a four-yard first quarter touchdown plunge.

While fellow running back Travis Etienne Jr. had two touchdowns to Tuten’s one, the fact that Tuten got the first crack at red zone carries while the game was still very much in doubt inspires confidence in this play this week.

There is a sizable difference between the +105 anytime touchdown odds at DraftKings and the -195 odds at the high end of the market. The +105 odds would return $10.50 in profits on a winning $10 wager, which is a much better value than the $5.13 one would stand to profit with the same bet through the market’s shortest odds.