NFL Best Bets Today: Week 1 Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

We're backing two moneyline favorites while betting the Over on Tyler Warren as part of our best bets for NFL Week 1.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 7, 2025 9:37 AM EDT • 8 minute read

NFL Best Bets Week 1: Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props — Pictured: Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren (84) runs with the ball after making a catch against the Baltimore Ravens. Photo by Rafael Suanes / Imagn Images.

The first two games of the 2025-26 NFL season are in the books, but there are still plenty of fascinating matchups yet to be played today as I offer my NFL best bets for Week 1.

My best NFL picks for Week 1 focus on each of the standard ways to bet an NFL game - moneyline, ATS, O/U - while rounding my portfolio out with my two best player prop wagers as part of our NFL predictions for Week 1.

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 1

NFL best bets for Sunday based on the latest NFL odds; subject to change.

Cardinals + Broncos moneyline parlay (-149 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Giants +6 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texans-Rams Under 43.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tyler Warren Over 3.5 receptions (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jordan Love Under 21.5 completions (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🚀 Broncos + Cardinals ML parlay (-149) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Last season, the biggest underdog in each of the first three weeks of the regular season won outright. Undeterred, I am parlaying the moneyline odds for two of the week’s biggest favorites, as each are in tremendous situational spots.

New Orleans scored fewer than 20 points in 10 games last year, tied for fourth-most in the league and the most by the franchise since 2005. And the Saints scored 10 or fewer points in four of the seven games that Spencer Rattler played in.

I do not expect the Saints offense, which had the lowest target share to wide receivers last year, to score enough to beat an Arizona team that allowed the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the NFL schedule makers did Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward dirty. Ward will experience early growing pains against a Broncos defense that led the NFL with a team-record 63 sacks last year. That's one reason why I'm backing Denver in my NFL survivor picks for Week 1.

Though FanDuel and DraftKings have varying odds on each of these teams’ moneylines, their odds come out to be the exact same when involved in a two-leg parlay. Bettors will not beat these -149 odds anywhere else among our best NFL parlay betting sites, and a $10 winning wager on this parlay with a 59.84% implied probability would net $6.71 in profits.

🗽 Giants +6 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There are few sides setting up to be more sharp in Week 1 than the Giants catching six points on the road against the Commanders - which is why it profiles as my best bet in my NFL betting guide for this week.

This line suggests New York is still being associated with its abysmal passing offense, which ranks 31st in first downs and passing touchdowns and dead last in yards per attempt since drafting Daniel Jones in 2019.

Russell Wilson may not turn New York into Super Bowl odds contenders, but he should be a lot more competent under center than Jones. He had 13 completions of 25-plus yards downfield from Weeks 7-18 last season (tied for second-most), and he should help the Giants offense complement what is an underrated defense.

This line has dropped as low as +5.5 across the best NFL betting sites. I am taking advantage of the best number and price at BetMGM, which would turn a $10 bet into a $9.09 profit with a 52.38% implied probability at these -110 odds.

⬇️ Texans-Rams Under 43.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has dealt with an ailing back all training camp. That means Los Angeles is likely to rely on its running game more than usual, but it only ranked 31st in yards per rush a year ago.

Meanwhile, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud was sacked 52 times and pressured on 36% of his dropbacks last season. The trade for slot receiver Christian Kirk should eventually help Stroud get the ball out quicker, but Kirk is missing this game with a hamstring injury.

The O/U is at 43.5 across the best sports betting sites, but Caesars is one of the only ones charging the standard -110 juice carrying a 52.38% implied probability to back the Under. A $10 winning wager at these odds would return $9.09 in profits.

💰 Best NFL player prop bets for Week 1

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Tyler Warren Over 3.5 receptions (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

After the Colts drafted him 14th overall in April's draft, rookie tight end Tyler Warren gets a favorable matchup to begin his NFL career.

The Dolphins allowed the sixth-most targets to tight ends last year. Warren is coming off a record-setting season at Penn State, where his 104 receptions set a school record and were tied for second-most among FBS players.

The fact that Indianapolis named Daniel Jones its starting quarterback for this game also makes this wager appealing, as I expect him to check the ball down often knowing that turnovers will send him back to the bench quickly.

The market value alone makes this play worth a wager, as Warren’s implied probability to record four-plus catches is as high as 61.39% through DraftKings’ -159 odds. I am rushing to bet365 before it raises its price to back this Over. A $10 winning wager at -115 odds would net $8.70 in profits.

⬇️ Jordan Love Under 21.5 completions (-122) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Last season, Packers quarterback Jordan Love’s splits when facing man versus zone coverage were night-and-day.

Against man coverage, Love completed 56% of his passes for a 6.9 yards per attempt average, and he was off target on 20% of his throws. When facing zone, he completed 68% of his passes while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, while just 10% of his throws were off target.

That is significant because Love faces a Lions defense that played man coverage on 56% of dropbacks last season - the most in the NFL.

This O/U is as low as 20.5, and the Under at that number is still juiced as high as -125 (carrying a 55.56% implied probability). By comparison, there is much better value through FanDuel’s -122 odds at a slightly higher total, where a $10 winning wager would net $8.20 in profits.

💡 NFL expert picks for Week 1

❓ NFL betting FAQs

What are the best bets for NFL Week 1?

My best bets for NFL Week 1 include the Cardinals and Broncos both to win outright, the Giants to cover, the Under in the Texans-Rams game, Tyler Warren to go Over his receptions total, and Jordan Love to stay Under his pass completions total.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”