NFL Best Bets for Week 10: Expert ATS Predictions & Player Props This Week

My NFL picks were a profitable 3-2 last week (including a +110 cash on an anytime touchdown scorer play), and I look to continue that momentum with my NFL best bets for Week 10. 

My NFL Week 10 predictions expect a bounceback from a team that lost as a big favorite last week. In addition, I make my two top O/U wagers from both the AFC and NFC, and I look to cash another plus-money anytime touchdown play for the second straight week.

🏈 NFL Week 10 best bets & expert picks

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 10 based on the latest NFL odds.

🔮 My best NFL predictions this week

🦁 Lions -7.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Detroit is coming off a bad loss as an 8.5-point home favorite against Minnesota last week. But this has historically been a great bounce-back spot for such teams, as those that have lost after being touchdown or more favorites covered 58.7% of the time the following week since 2015. And over the last three seasons, teams in that spot are 22-13 ATS.

Lions quarterback Jared Goff still ranks in the top five in completion percentage (73.8%), passing touchdowns (17), and passer rating (115.2). 

The Commanders have lost three straight games by 20-plus points and could quickly turn into a team playing out the string after the devastating elbow injury that Jayden Daniels suffered.

I am laying my $10 wager down at DraftKings, the only best sports betting site offering a spread lower than -8 (FanDuel is a point higher at -8.5). Through its -115 price and 53.49% implied odds, I would net $8.70 in profits if Detroit covers.

⬇️ Jaguars-Texans Under 38 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This total has plummeted from a lookahead number of 45.5 with the news that C.J. Stroud is ruled out with a concussion and Davis Mills is the Texans’ starting quarterback.

Jacksonville was always going to have difficulty scoring in this game. It has averaged 16.3 points per game since Week 6 (tied for 29th in that span), and Houston has the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense (15.1 points per game) and total defense (267.4 yards per game). Meanwhile, Houston has just eight touchdowns in 22 total red-zone trips.

BetMGM is the only best sports betting app offering a total of 38, as all other competitors are a half-point lower at 37.5. That makes paying up for the -115 juice and 53.49% implied odds worth it, and a $10 winning wager would still return $8.70 in profits.

⬇️ Giants-Bears Under 46.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

This game has a lower O/U than one would have thought, primarily because the temperature is expected to drop to the mid-30s in Chicago, with wind gusts of 20 mph to 30 mph.

That should have a huge impact on each team’s passing game, especially with Caleb Williams, who has thrown for 280-plus yards in back-to-back games. 

Chicago should still have success running the football, as it enters ranked second with 144.4 rush yards per game, and New York has not allowed fewer than 100 rush yards since Week 6. 

But that should also lead to slower drives and a more methodical game plan, and I love the contrarian nature of this play with the Giants allowing 33-plus points in three straight games.

FanDuel is the only top sportsbook charging less than -108 odds (which carry a 51.92% implied probability) to back the Under. With the best number at the best price, I hope to net $9.26 in profits with my $10 wager.

💰 My best NFL player props this week

⬇️ Daniel Jones player prop: Under 32.5 passing attempts (-127) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is the centerpiece of my five-star best NFL player prop this week. The Falcons allow the fewest passing yards per game (158.1) and create sacks at the sixth-highest rate. 

Given that Jones has been sacked eight times since Week 8 (tied for the second-most of any quarterback in that span), Indianapolis should employ a run-heavy attack with Jonathan Taylor in Germany. Our Gary Pearson also projects Taylor to have a big game in his Falcons vs. Colts prediction.

The Under has as high as a 59.35% implied probability through FanDuel’s -146 odds, so we are getting a much better return at DraftKings. At a -127 price, a $10 winning wager would net $7.87 in profits.

For more props in this game, check out Isaiah Sirois' Falcons vs. Colts player props.

🔥 David Montgomery player prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

I would only make this play if I was offered plus-money odds, and FanDuel is the only best sports betting app with that generous of a price.

The Lions run the ball at the second-highest rate, and David Montgomery surprisingly is coming off a week where he had more carries and targets than Jahmyr Gibbs. 

On the season, Montgomery has gotten 80% of the goal-line carries. His 10 goal-line rush attempts compared to Gibbs’ six suggest his number will be called when Detroit gets in close. 

If Montgomery scores for the second straight week, my $10 winning wager would return the same amount back in profits.