NFL Best Bets for Wild Card Weekend: ATS Picks & Player Props This Week

My NFL best bets for the Wild Card Round offer a blend of ATS and O/U plays, with a big focus on player props from several skill position players.

There are several trends suggesting another slow start for the Pittsburgh Steelers, while I also expect the Philadelphia Eagles to unleash a more aggressive offensive game plan against a depleted San Francisco 49ers defense. It’s all part of our NFL wild-card predictions.

🏈 NFL best bets for Wild Card Round

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in the Wild Card Round.

Packers-Bears Over 45.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Chicago averaged 5.0 yards per rush in the two games against the Packers, its most versus any divisional opponent this season. But it is Caleb Williams’ hot stretch to end the regular season that has me particularly interested in the Over.

Through Weeks 1-14, Williams was off-target on 22% of his throws, had a 19-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, completed 26% of his passes in tight windows, and posted a 55 Total QBR. From Weeks 15-18, his off-target percentage lowered to 13% while posting an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 50% tight window completion percentage, and the sixth-highest Total QBR (70). 

With Green Bay being a bottom-10 defense on the road all season, this third meeting between NFC North rivals should be high-scoring.

Texans first half spread -1.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Steelers have been notoriously slow starters amid a six-game playoff losing streak, being outscored 73-0 in the first quarter in that span. And on a much bigger scale, Pittsburgh has not scored more than seven points in the first quarter in 69 straight games.

I expect Houston to jump out to a first-half lead on the strength of a defense that ranks second in Defensive Efficiency. It is also built to negate one of the Steelers’ biggest offensive strengths, as Houston ranks seventh in yards after the catch allowed, while Pittsburgh’s pass catchers have totaled the second-highest yards after the catch.

💰 Best NFL player props for Wild Card Round

Saquon Barkley Over 99.5 rushing + receiving yards (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Saquon Barkley had an underwhelming year by his standards, ranking ninth with 71.3 rushing yards per game. But he gets a tasty matchup against a banged-up 49ers defense that is without Fred Warner, Nick Martin, and Tatum Bethune, and has Dee Winters and Luke Gifford questionable from its linebacking corps alone.

The reason for lumping his receiving yards into this wager instead of just backing his rushing total alone is that San Francisco does not have a disruptive pass rush. In fact, the 49ers’ 20 sacks are tied for the fourth-fewest of any playoff team in the Super Bowl era. 

For what it’s worth, none of the other four teams with 20 or fewer sacks entering the playoff won a postseason game that year.

Justin Herbert Under 29.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Justin Herbert rushed for 498 yards this year, 192 more than last year’s previous career-high. While he has 37 or more rushing yards in three of his last four games, I am lowering my expectations for his rushing total against a Patriots defense that has gotten a key run-stuffer back from injury.

In the 12 games New England has had a healthy Milton Williams, it has allowed 56.3 rush yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. In the five games without him, the Patriots have allowed 127.0 rush yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry.

Those splits should heavily impact the Chargers running backs, but I trust that Mike Vrabel’s defense will also bottle up the mobile quarterback.

Nico Collins anytime touchdown scorer (+151) ⭐⭐⭐

Houston’s C.J. Stroud has the third-highest Total QBR (87) of any quarterback on throws between the numbers. But my biggest reason for expecting the team’s top wideout to score is Stroud's ability to exploit Pittsburgh’s excessive use of single-high safety coverage.

Since Week 8, Houston ranks first in EPA per dropback against single-high coverage, but is 16th against split safeties.

Nico Collins has averaged 91.8 receiving yards per game in four playoff games (101.5 in last year’s two postseason games) and scored a touchdown in half of those, making these anytime touchdown odds a great value play.