NFL Best Bets for Conference Championships: ATS Picks & Player Props This Week

With two games to choose from as I make my NFL best bets for Conference Championships, I highlight my favorite plays on spreads, totals, and player props.

My NFL Conference Championship predictions expect a defensive struggle with an unproven quarterback in the AFC Championship, while the Seattle Seahawks use a dominant defense and resurgent running game to win the rubber match against the Los Angeles Rams.

🏈 NFL best bets for Conference Championships

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for both Conference Championships.

Patriots-Broncos Under 42.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bo Nix’ season-ending injury in the Divisional Round paves the way for Jarrett Stidham to start for the Broncos. Since 2019 among quarterbacks with 200-plus dropbacks, Stidham ranks 83rd in completion percentage (59%), 79th in sack percentage (8.2%), and 71st in Total QBR (40.7).

The fact that New England is facing a backup quarterback is also likely to make it more conservative on offense without the need to put the ball in harm’s way as often. Even still, the Patriots can build off the confidence of holding Houston to season lows in yards per play (3.3) and rushing yards (48).

The Under cashed in four of Denver’s five games as underdogs, and should be the right side of the total again. Our Gary Pearson breaks down what should be a defensive slugfest in his Patriots vs. Broncos early prediction.

Seahawks -2.5 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Los Angeles has eked out two three-point victories over the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears, the two teams with the worst point differentials through the first three quarters among all 14 playoff teams (Carolina minus-92, Chicago minus-4).

Seattle showed an outstanding ability to get pressure with its front four last week, blitzing Brock Purdy 12% of the time while still generating an overall 58% pressure percentage.

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford just went 4-for-9 for 59 yards while taking four sacks last week after being pressured on 28% of his dropbacks. 

Seattle also benefits from a rest advantage having played last Saturday, while the Rams were the late game on Sunday. This is just the first hurdle for the home team if they want to win it all, and our C Jackson Cowart digs into how the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026 ahead of the game.

💰 Best NFL player props for Conference Championships

Drake Maye Under 19.5 completions (-111) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Patriots QB Maye entered the playoffs with the best Total QBR against the blitz, and was top three in completion percentage and Total QBR on throws of 20-plus air yards. But this wager assumes New England will play with a lead for most of the game while deploying a conservative game plan, knowing Jarrett Stidham is unlikely to light up the scoreboard.  

This postseason alone, the Patriots defense has allowed three points to the Chargers (their best in a playoff game since 2018), and forced five turnovers in their last game. 

Denver’s defense also forced Josh Allen into season-highs in off-target attempts (nine) and off-target percentage (23%), so New England should lean on its running game more in this matchup. 

Kenneth Walker III to score a first half touchdown (+165) ⭐⭐⭐

Fellow Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet is out for the season with a torn ACL, which means the opportunities he converted for a team-leading 12 rushing touchdowns now falls to Walker.

Walker has at least 133 scrimmage yards in three of the last four games, and is a big reason the team ranks second with 172.3 rushing yards per game since Week 16. 

Overall, Seattle has rushed for 689 yards and eight touchdowns in the last four games, its first time reaching those marks as a franchise in a four-game span since 2014. That is why I am eschewing Walker’s steeper -175 anytime touchdown odds (63.64% implied odds) for a bigger payout with him scoring in the first half.

And if you're into this odds range and thing the Seahawks are bound for the Big Game, walker is paying similarly according to the Super Bowl anytime touchdown scorer odds.