Bears vs. Commanders Player Props: Monday Night Football Week 6

It’s a matchup of the top two picks of last year’s NFL draft as Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams faces Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels on Monday Night Football, and we analyze which quarterback is the better play among our best Bears vs. Commanders player props. 

The Commanders are the 4.5-point betting favorite ahead of kickoff from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md., at 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC). Our Philip Wood breaks down his favorite play for the game in his Bears vs. Commanders player props.

Our NFL picks take advantage of the huge mismatch between the Bears run defense and the Commanders rushing offense. Our trio of player props round out our NFL predictions for Week 6.

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🏈 Bears vs. Commanders player props: Monday Night Football

NFL player prop bets for Monday Night Football; NFL odds subject to change.

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime TD scorer (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Caleb Williams longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• DJ Moore Over 38.5 receiving yards (-118 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

💰 Best Bears vs. Commanders player prop bets: Monday Night Football

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥  Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime touchdown scorer (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

My best Bears vs. Commanders player prop bets start off with a five-star anytime touchdown scorer wager, as there is a huge mismatch in the trenches between Chicago’s run defense and Washington’s rushing offense.

Chicago has allowed an NFL-worst 6.1 yards per rush to running backs, while Washington has the top-ranked rushing attack in the league (156.4 rushing yards per game) and average 5.9 yards per carry.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt is coming off a game with his most touches (16) and rushing yards (111) against the Los Angeles Chargers, which also paid off in his first multiple-touchdown game of the season.

The best price for this wager is at bet365, as the Croskey-Merritt’s anytime touchdown odds go as high as -140 at a 58.33% implied probability. If Croskey-Merritt finds the endzone at least once (he has done so in three of five games thus far), my $10 wager would net $8.33 in profits.

⬆️  Caleb Williams longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Caleb Williams was sacked on 10% of dropbacks last year, while being off-target on 53% of his deep throws and averaging 9.3 deep yards per dropback. He has looked much more comfortable so far in Ben Johnson’s offense, and has been much better in large part because his protection has been much better.

This season, Williams’ sack percentage is down to 4.7%, while he is off target on just 37% of his deep throws, and averaging 13.6 deep yards per dropback. 

If Williams is able to escape pressure, that also increases his chances of connecting on at least one deep throw. The second-year signal caller ranks ninth with a 76.7 QBR on throws outside the pocket. 

Williams has at least one 36-yard completion in two of four games this year. I am taking advantage of the best number and price at FanDuel, as this O/U is as high as 36.5 with the Over juiced to -115 at 53.49% implied odds. A $10 winning wager through FanDuel’s -112 odds would return $8.93 in profits.

⬆️  DJ Moore Over 38.5 receiving yards (-118) ⭐⭐⭐

Bears wide receiver DJ Moore has seen five or more targets in each game, but his output has been overshadowed by Rome Odunze, who has 123 more receiving yards and three more receiving touchdowns than Moore this season.

I am buying low on Moore, whose 16% target share is lower than teammate Olamide Zaccheaus’ 16.8% target share despite running 46 more routes. Moore has also been targeted on just 4.8% of his routes against man coverage, but I trust Ben Johnson and the rest of the coaching staff spent last week’s bye making adjustments to get him more involved.

Moore has at least 38 receiving yards in three of four games. That has me backing this Over at a price of -118 at 54.13% implied odds with three stars of confidence. 

BetMGM has a slightly better number than the 39.5-yard total at the same -118 juice at the high end of the market. Through its -118 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $8.47 in profits.

📊 Bears vs. Commanders odds: Monday Night Football

Latest Monday Night Football odds updated live in real time.

📺️ How to watch Monday Night Football

• Matchup: Bears vs. Commanders
• When: Monday, Oct. 13
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Md.)
• TV: ABC