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NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Top 2 ATS Bets and Predictions for the Conference Championships

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 23, 2023 7:21 AM EST • 2 min 31 sec read.

Can Joe Burrow win the AFC Championship in consecutive years against the Chiefs in Kansas City? With the best NFL odds, let's take a look at our favorite NFL point-spread picks for the weekend. 

Despite a wild NFL season, we have only one different team playing in the Conference Championships from last year, and that's the Philadelphia Eagles. Meanwhile, the AFC Championship will be a rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals. 

I don't know how familiar you are with a high ankle sprain, but I have a feeling you'll hear a lot about it this week. Patrick Mahomes' injured ankle will dominate headlines and is already affecting betting markets. 

Can we take advantage of this early movement in the AFC Championship game? 

Here are the power rankings of my favorite point-spread picks for the NFL Conference Championships (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Monday, Jan. 23, at 9:30 a.m. ET).

Check out our NFL best bets and Best NFL Betting Sites.

Check out our NFL Conference Championship odds and lines for a preview of this week's playoff action.

NFL ATS Picks Power Rankings for the Conference Championships

2. 49ers +3 vs. Eagles (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Yes, Brock Purdy playing in the NFC Championship in one of the toughest road environments in the NFL causes me concern. There's no denying that we've been waiting for Purdy to fail, and he just hasn't. Purdy is surrounded by offensive weapons and an elite coaching staff who make his life easier. 

It's understandable to have concerns about Purdy playing in Philadelphia on the road, but I bet with math, and my numbers support the +3 we're getting with the San Francisco 49ers this week. I make the Philadelphia Eagles 1-point favorites over the 49ers, so taking the 49ers at +3 is a solid opportunity. 

It appears that all the sportsbooks will begin to offer the 49ers at +3 very soon, but only BetMGM is offering the 49ers at +3 right now. If you're going to make this wager, you should definitely buy the +3, and don't settle for anything less.

It's unlikely that this line will reach 49ers +3.5, I believe 49ers +3 will be the point at which we see more action on San Francisco.

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1. Chiefs -1 vs. Bengals (-106 via FanDuel Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There has already been a great deal of movement on this line since the opener, as the Kansas City Chiefs were originally posted as 3-point favorites for the AFC Championship. The Cincinnati Bengals' road dominance over the Buffalo Bills and the uncertainty surrounding Mahomes' ankle have driven the Chiefs' line down to -1.

Though the recency bias is in favor of the Bengals side of this spread and this has been evident early in the line movement, I like the number we're getting with the Chiefs because of that movement.

I make the Chiefs 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals, and the move from Chiefs -3 to Chiefs -1 has resulted in a substantial difference between my number and the market price. We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the Bills were unable to capitalize on the Bengals' depleted offensive line due to weather conditions.

The opportunity to buy the Chiefs at -1 when I believe they should trade at -3.5 is significant. This bet does not only have a 2.5-point difference, but it also involves several key numbers, and for this reason, I've given it a four-star rating. 

NFL against-the-spread picks made 01/23/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.