March Madness Giant Killers: Which Cinderellas Are Built to Bust Your NCAA Tournament Bracket?
There's a strong history of upsets in the NCAA Tournament and plenty of memorable Cinderella stories over the years, which is why mixing in a few lower seeds to reach the Sweet 16 is key when figuring out how to fill out a March Madness bracket.
This year there are plenty of potential March Madness odds giant killers from UC San Diego to Drake, so which Cinderellas are built to bust your NCAA Tournament bracket with the tournament beginning today?
👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.
Which Cinderellas are built to bust your NCAA Tournament bracket?
🔱 No. 12 seed UC San Diego
- Record: 30-4
- Head coach: Eric Olen (first NCAA Tournament appearance)
- KenPom rating: 36th
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 57th
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 30th
- Player to know: Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (19.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.7 APG)
- First round matchup: Thursday, 10 p.m. ET (TBS) vs. Michigan
One of the most popular sleeper picks to reach the Sweet 16 this year (+370), UC San Diego is playing in its first-ever NCAA Tournament in its first year of eligibility. The program moved up from Division II in 2020 from the CCAA to the Big West and it had to wait five years until it was allowed to qualify for March Madness, per NCAA rules.
It actually only jumped up to Division II in 2000 and was historically not very good until Eric Olen took over in 2013 and transformed the Tritons into a D-II power. Now he has a chance to lead UC San Diego to a win over Big Ten tournament champ Michigan.
The second-highest ranked one-bid league team by KenPom, UC San Diego relies heavily on 3-pointers with strong shooters like Tyler McGhie and Hayden Gray. However, it's New Zealander Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones who's the team's offensive X-factor with his ability to win inside the arc and get to the free-throw line.
Something else the Wolverines will need to worry about is how aggressive a defense Olen deploys with the Tritons sitting fourth in the country in steals per game (9.9) while rarely turning the ball over themselves (8.7 per game). UC San Diego hits threes at a high rate, doesn't turn the ball over, and forces opponents into mistakes.
This is the most obvious Cinderella in the March Madness bracket.
📊 UC San Diego's odds to beat Michigan in the first round: +125 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $12.50)
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🤠 No. 12 seed McNeese
- Record: 27-6
- Head coach: Will Wade (seventh NCAA Tournament appearance, second with McNeese)
- KenPom rating: 59th
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 63rd
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 66th
- Player to know: Javohn Garcia (12.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.6 SPG)
- First round matchup: Thursday, 3:15 p.m. ET (truTV) vs. Clemson | Clemson vs. McNeese prediction
For the second straight year, McNeese is receiving plenty of attention as a potential Cinderella in the NCAA Tournament. Former LSU head coach Will Wade has turned the Cowboys into a Southland Conference power and has won 57 games in two seasons at the helm - that's more than McNeese had won in the five seasons prior to Wade's arrival combined.
This isn't a historically impressive program, but Wade has willed them to success with a suffocating defense led by feisty guards like Javohn Garcia and Quadir Copeland. To add an extra wrinkle of fun into McNeese's first-round matchup, it's taking on Clemson, Wade's alma mater where he was a student manager and graduate assistant.
Although McNeese wasn't able to live up to the buzz as a Cinderella last year and ultimately fell to Gonzaga in the first round, this year's team matches up better against a similarly slow-paced Clemson squad. Expect McNeese to make this into a rock fight.
If they can knock off Clemson, I think the Cowboys have a strong shot at making a push to the Sweet 16 (+690), which is where I have them going in my March Madness bracket reactions.
They also get bonus points for already having a viral sensation in student manager Amir Khan.
📊 McNeese's odds to beat Clemson in the first round: +275 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $27.50)
🐶 No. 11 seed Drake
- Record: 30-3
- Head coach: Ben McCollum (first NCAA Tournament appearance)
- KenPom rating: 58th
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 76th
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 46th
- Player to know: Bennett Stirtz (19.2 PPG, 5.7 APG, 2.2 SPG)
- First round matchup: Thursday, 7:35 p.m. ET (truTV) vs. Missouri | Missouri vs. Drake prediction
It's hard to find a cooler story than the Tritons' this season but drive over 1,700 miles from San Diego to Des Moines, Iowa, and you'll find one with this Drake team. When head coach Darian DeVries left the Bulldogs for West Virginia last season, it looked like Drake's reign in the Missouri Valley could be over - DeVries is now taking the Indiana opening.
Instead, the Bulldogs are in the NCAA Tournament and the Mountaineers have their state governor holding press conferences to talk about Quad 1 wins. But what makes this Drake team so cool is the fact that they dipped down to D-II to hire Ben McCollum as head coach.
McCollum was at Northwest Missouri State from 2009 until last year and won four D-II championships while racking up a 395-91 record, yet, it took over a decade for a D-I program to hire the guy. When Drake did, he brought four of his best players with him from Northwest Missouri State - Bennett Stirtz, Daniel Abreu, Mitch Mascari, and Isaiah Jackson.
This team is basically Northwest Missouri State dressed as Drake and managed to be one of the most efficient offenses in the country while possessing one of the best perimeter defenses among mid-majors. Stirtz in particular is a superstar in the making and should give Missouri all it can handle.
Drake taking down Missouri is my favorite upset pick of the first round. And if the Bulldogs didn't end up in the most loaded region (West), they would be my top Sweet 16 Cinderella pick.
📊 Drake's odds to beat Missouri in the first round: +222 via Caesars (bet $10 to win $22.20)
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🐏 No. 11 seed VCU
- Record: 28-6
- Head coach: Ryan Odom (third NCAA Tournament appearance, first at VCU)
- KenPom rating: 30th
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 41st
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 23rd
- Player to know: Max Shulga (15.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4 APG)
- First round matchup: Thursday, 4:05 p.m. ET (TNT) vs. BYU | BYU vs. VCU prediction
The first thing to know about VCU is that head coach Ryan Odom has made his career out of being a giant killer. He was the head coach of the UMBC team that beat Virginia in the NCAA Tournament in 2018, the first time a No. 16 seed ever took down a No. 1 seed. He then parlayed his success with the Retrievers into the head job at Utah State before taking the VCU gig when Mike Rhoades left for Penn State.
While the Rams missed March Madness in Odom's first year in Richmond, Va., last season, they've completely upped their game this year. They're the No. 1 rated team from a one-bid league by both KenPom and EvanMiya and their matchup with BYU should be one of the best of the first round.
If they can take down the Cougars, they also have a legitimate shot against Wisconsin ... and even Alabama in the Sweet 16. The key to a magical VCU run like the one the program had over a decade ago under Shaka Smart is Max Shulga.
The A-10 Player of the Year, Shulga came with Odom from Utah State and has become one of the best mid-major guards in the country. But what makes VCU so scary is the fact that they have another conference player-of-the-year-caliber guard in Joseph Bamisile, who played at Virginia Tech, George Washington, and Oklahoma before settling in at VCU.
The Rams have a defense that's poised to give BYU all it can handle in a game that's going to be must-watch-TV.
📊 VCU's odds to beat BYU in the first round: +143 via Caesars (bet $10 to win $14.30)
Other potential Cinderellas to know
🔥 No. 12 seed Liberty
- Record: 28-6
- Head coach: Ritchie McKay (fourth NCAA Tournament appearance, third with Liberty)
- KenPom rating: 62nd
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 80th
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 49th
- Player to know: Zach Cleveland (11 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.1 APG)
- First round matchup: Friday, 10:10 p.m. ET (truTV) vs. Oregon
📊 Liberty's odds to beat Oregon in the first round: +270 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $27)
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🎓 No. 13 seed Yale
- Record: 22-7
- Head coach: James Jones (fifth NCAA Tournament appearance)
- KenPom rating: 73rd
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 59th
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 117th
- Player to know: John Poulakidas (19.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 40.9% 3P%)
- First round matchup: Thursday, 7:25 p.m. ET (TBS) vs. Texas A&M | Texas A&M vs. Yale prediction
📊 Yale's odds to beat Texas A&M in the first round: +260 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $26)
🏜️ No. 13 seed Grand Canyon
- Record: 26-7
- Head coach: Bryce Drew (seventh NCAA Tournament appearance, fourth with Grand Canyon)
- KenPom rating: 93rd
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 149th
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 67th
- Player to know: Tyon Grant-Foster (14.5 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.6 BPG)
- First round matchup: Friday, 4:35 p.m. ET (TBS) vs. Maryland
📊 Grand Canyon's odds to beat Maryland in the first round: +450 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $45)
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🐆 No. 13 seed High Point
- Record: 29-5
- Head coach: Alan Huss (first NCAA Tournament appearance)
- KenPom rating: 84th
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 25th
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 227th
- Player to know: Kezza Giffa (14.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 2.5 APG)
- First round matchup: Thursday, 12:40 p.m. (truTV) vs. Purdue | Purdue vs. High Point prediction
📊 High Point's odds to beat Purdue in the first round: +295 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $29.50)
🦘 No. 13 seed Akron
- Record: 28-6
- Head coach: John Groce (sixth NCAA Tournament appearance, third with Akron)
- KenPom rating: 99th
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 66th
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 183rd
- Player to know: Nate Johnson (14 PPG, 5 RPG, 3.5 APG)
- First round matchup: Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET (truTV) vs. Arizona
📊 Akron's odds to beat Arizona in the first round: +750 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $75)
🦬 No. 14 seed Lipscomb
- Record: 25-9
- Head coach: Lennie Acuff (first NCAA Tournament appearance)
- KenPom rating: 83rd
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 75th
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 100th
- Player to know: Jacob Ognacevic (20.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 40.2% 3P%)
- First round matchup: Friday, 1:30 p.m. ET (TNT) vs. Iowa State
📊 Lipscomb's odds to beat Iowa State in the first round: +800 via BetRivers (bet $10 to win $80)
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⚔️ No. 14 seed Troy
- Record: 23-10
- Head coach: Scott Cross (second NCAA Tournament appearance, first with Troy)
- KenPom rating: 98th
- Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 153rd
- Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 71st
- Player to know: Tayton Conerway (14.3 PPG, 4.8 APG, 4.6 RPG)
- First round matchup: Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS) vs. Kentucky
📊 Troy's odds to beat Kentucky in the first round: +550 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $55)
📅 March Madness key dates
- Selection Sunday:
March 16 - First Four: March 18-19
- First round: March 20-21
- Second round: March 22-23
- Sweet 16: March 27-28
- Elite Eight: March 29-30
- Final Four: Saturday, April 5
- National championship game: Monday, April 7
🔮 March Madness bracket picks & tips
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🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today
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💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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