West Virginia vs. Xavier Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 23

I break down my West Virginia vs. Xavier prediction, which is the second game of the Palmetto Bracket from the Shriners Children’s Charleston Classic in Charleston.

Tipoff for this Big 12 vs. Big East matchup is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN), with West Virginia the 6.5-point betting favorite. The Mountaineers and Musketeers lost by a combined four points in their first games of the tournament. But instead of wondering who will get over the loss quicker, there is more data to suggest the Under is the best play.

✅ West Virginia vs. Xavier prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

🏀 West Virginia vs. Xavier preview & score prediction

Xavier has struggled in its first season under new head coach Richard Pitino. The Musketeers have lost three of their first six games by an average of 13 points. But both Xavier and West Virginia have done things on the defensive end that should frustrate their opponents this afternoon.

Xavier’s new defensive wrinkle 

Xavier did not need to deploy much zone defense in the early portion of its non-conference schedule. But it used a zone to perfection to slow down Georgia’s top-15 tempo, holding the Bulldogs to an average of 0.68 points on 21 zone possessions. 

In the process, Georgia also turned in its lowest rim rate of the season, which should come as no surprise that Xavier held it to more than 20 points under its previous season scoring average. 

West Virginia has also been a solid defensive team under first year head coach Ross Hodge. The Mountaineers are ranked 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are also in the top 27 in turnover rate (23%) and offensive rebounding rate allowed (22.3%).

The O/U is listed at 140.5 at standard -110 juice (carrying 52.38% implied probability) across the market. If the Under cashes, my $10 winning wager would net $9.09 in profits.

Score prediction: West Virginia 72, Xavier 64

🆚 West Virginia vs. Xavier matchup to watch

Filip Borovicanin vs. West Virginia defense

Much of the reason West Virginia’s defensive numbers are so good is because its offense plays at the third-slowest pace in the country. I expect its defense to complement its offense well again, leading to a low team total for Xavier.

The Mountaineers are a physical bullying type of offense that attempts free throws at a top-55 rate. Xavier can ill afford foul trouble, as it ranks 270th in bench minutes (28.8%).

The Musketeers will likely have to live and die by the 3-point shot, as they rank in the bottom 40 in 2-point percentage (42.7%), while West Virginia is one of the best rim-protecting teams in the country (41st in 2-point percentage allowed). 

Excluding Jovan Milicevic, the rest of the Musketeers on Friday shot just 6-for-23 from beyond the arc. That has us projecting Filip Borovicanin to stay Under the total for the first time in four games, especially since he is just 2-for-16 from 3-point range on the season.

Best prop bet: Filip Borovicanin Under 7.5 points (-105 via bet365)

📊 West Virginia vs. Xavier odds

See live college basketball odds for every game.

📺 How to watch West Virginia vs. Xavier

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 23
• Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: TD Arena (Charleston, S.C.)
• TV: ESPN