🏀 Virginia vs. Duke Prediction: ACC Championship Odds & Picks (March 14)

My best Virginia vs. Duke prediction for tonight's 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) ACC final at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C., focuses on No. 10 Virginia's ability to take advantage of No. 1 Duke's lack of depth with Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster out. Duke is a 6.5-point betting favorite.

Duke beat Virginia by 26 earlier this season, and in my opinion, that result is influencing this spread far too much. These teams play similar styles, and I expect the physical Cavaliers to keep this game closer than oddsmakers expect.

It's just one more day until Selection Sunday, and our college basketball conference tournament guide will have you ready for all the action as teams vie for automatic bids.

🏀 Virginia vs. Duke picks & odds: ACC (March 14)

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 4 units

💰 Virginia vs. Duke prediction & best bet

Virginia +6.5 (-110)

Virginia shot just 29% from the floor against Duke in the first meeting, but is shooting 46.3% this season. And though Duke ranks sixth in opponent field goal percentage (39.1%), Florida State shot 52% against the Blue Devils in the quarterfinals.  

Only seven Blue Devils played yesterday. With this being the third game in three days, I expect this lack of depth to seriously impact Duke's game plan. After all, in Duke's 26-point win over Virginia, Ngongba scored 11 points, and Foster led the team with six assists. Neither player will be on the court tonight.

Score prediction: Duke 72 - Virginia 70

🔥 Best Virginia vs. Duke player prop bet

Thijs De Ridder Over 5.5 rebounds (-118)

De Ridder only grabbed three rebounds in his first meeting with Duke, but he's averaging 6.2 per game this season. Additionally, in that first game, he played a season-low 20 minutes. This is a player who averages 27.5 minutes per game.

Though Cameron Boozer leads Duke with 10.3 rebounds per game, Ngongba is second on the team with 6.0 rebounds per contest. His absence will be felt, as will Foster's, who recorded six boards in the first game between these two.

Finally, Virginia is holding opponents to 39.6% from the floor. That's the 10th-lowest percentage in the nation. With this being Duke's third game in three days, and with the Blue Devils currently lacking depth, I expect a lot of missed shots and more rebounding opportunities for De Ridder.

🚀 Virginia vs. Duke same-game parlay

FanDuel is offering De Ridder Over 5.5 rebounds for -118, while DraftKings is offering the same prop for -155. Additionally, DraftKings has the total set at 140.5. I love Virginia in this game, and while I worry about tired legs for both teams, I still expect both to ultimately get into the 70s, as both offenses average over 80 per game. Still, I want the lowest total for -110 that I can get, and FanDuel offers that.

💡 How I'm betting Virginia vs. Duke

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

I love Virginia covering the spread in this game. I would make this a 2.5 or three-unit play if Duke hadn't blown out Virginia by so much earlier this season. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if Virginia won this game. After all, Florida State very nearly pulled the upset two days ago.

As for the total, both teams are averaging over 80 points per game. However, this is the third game in three days for both, and especially with Duke's lack of depth, I worry fatigue will be a huge issue. Therefore, Over 139.5 is just a one-unit play for me. This fatigue will also lead to plenty of missed shots for both sides, which is why I'll risk 1.5 units on De Ridder hitting his season average in rebounds

📊 Live Virginia vs. Duke odds: ACC Championship

Duke opened as an 8.5-point favorite, and the public has very wisely backed Virginia. The spread now sits at 6.5, and I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped to 5.5 before tipoff. I'd back Virginia at +4.5, so there's no danger of this spread shrinking so much that Duke becomes the play.

As for the total, it opened at 135.5, and it hasn't taken long to climb to 139.5. If this number gets to 141.5, then I'd stay away from the total altogether, as it really is a coin flip at that point.

📈 Virginia vs. Duke betting trends

📺 How to watch Virginia vs. Duke: ACC

• Date: Saturday, March 14
• Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Spectrum Center (Charlotte, N.C.)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: ESPN+