🏀 Vermont vs. UMBC Prediction: America East Odds & Picks (March 14)
As expected, the top two teams will meet in the America East conference championship game. UMBC and Vermont are set to clash for a title and an NCAA tournament berth at 11 a.m. ET on Saturday at the Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena in Baltimore on ESPN2.
UMBC has been the best team in the league all year, but Vermont has won the conference tourney three times in the past four seasons. With the Retrievers listed as a short favorite, I'm backing the superior squad in my Vermont vs. UMBC prediction.
Woof, woof.
🏀 Vermont vs. UMBC picks & odds: America East (March 14)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC moneyline | -132 via FanDuel | 1.32u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 137.5 | -109 via BetRivers | 0.7u -> 0.64u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.02 units | Max profit: 1.64 units
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💰 Vermont vs. UMBC prediction & best bet
UMBC moneyline (-132)
The last time UMBC hosted Vermont, the Retrievers rolled to a 75-62 victory. They haven't lost to an America East foe at home all year, improving to 10-0 in Baltimore after a pair of double-digit wins to reach the title game.
In addition, UMBC is playing extremely well at the right time. Since its road loss to Vermont on Jan. 29, UMBC has won 11 consecutive games. The Retrievers have climbed from No. 259 overall on KenPom to their current ranking of 194th.
Vermont, meanwhile, has fallen from 209th to 233rd on KenPom during that same stretch, finishing the year with an 8-3 clip.
UMBC is the much better team and I think we are only getting a short moneyline price due to Vermont's pedigree.
Score prediction: UMBC 74, Vermont 69
🚀 Vermont vs. UMBC same-game parlay
Because there are no player props for this game, my Vermont vs. UMBC parlay focuses on my two favorite picks on Saturday. FanDuel offers the best price on UMBC's moneyline, which is why I've opted to shop there. I'm comfortable with this Over up to 140 as part of my SGP, so that could be a way to boost the odds even further once alternate markets become available.
💵 Vermont vs. UMBC SGP picks
- UMBC moneyline (-132)
- Over 138.5 (-110)
Best odds: +211 (0.2u -> 0.42u)
💡 How I'm betting Vermont vs. UMBC
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Perhaps I'm foolish to have such strong conviction on the America East championship game, but I like both of my Vermont vs. UMBC plays quite a bit. I've allocated a little over two units, as I expect both markets to move in my favor.
Bettors would be wise to target opening lines because they are a bit softer, and this is one of those cases where I'm a bit surprised by the initial odds. KenPom projects a four-point win for UMBC, so I'm willing to lay a couple of points with the Retrievers if needed.
As for the total, both teams have been off since Tuesday. I'm not concerned by any tired legs, so there is more value in the Over on the low total.
📊 Live Vermont vs. UMBC odds: America East
UMBC opened as a 1.5-point favorite at FanDuel, while the total has started at 138.5. I'm projecting some movement once more shops set odds for this game.
Before Saturday's tipoff, I expect the spread to move in UMBC's favor and the total to climb. As a result, I like the value of both markets.
📈 Vermont vs. UMBC betting trends
| Vermont | Statistic | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| 22-11 | W-L record | 23-8 |
| 14-18 | ATS record | 18-11 |
| 16-15-1 | O/U record | 13-16 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
📺 How to watch Vermont vs. UMBC: America East
- Date: Saturday, March 14
- Tipoff: 11 a.m. ET
- Location: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena (Baltimore)
- TV: ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN+
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