🏀 UTSA vs. UConn Prediction & Picks: Women's March Madness Round 1 (March 21)

No. 1 UConn enters the NCAA Tournament undefeated, and I expect the Huskies to dominate their first-round opponent, No. 16 UTSA.

My best UTSA vs. UConn prediction for Saturday's 3 p.m. ET (ABC) women's March Madness at Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, Conn., backs UConn to cover as massive 54.5-point favorites. Below, I highlight why UConn will be able to cover this spread, even if starters get rest for the majority of the second half. For more on the women's tournament, check out our women's March Madness odds. 

🏀 UTSA vs. UConn picks & odds: Women's March Madness Round 1

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.76 units

🏆 Who will win UTSA vs. UConn?

I'm taking UConn to win by 60 points because the Huskies are allowing just 50.4 points per game, and the UTSA offense, which is averaging 60.0 points per game, is primed to become the fifth UConn opponent to fail to reach 40 in a game this season.

Score prediction: UConn 94, UTSA 34

💰 UTSA vs. UConn prediction & best bet

UConn -54.5 (-110)

Defensively, the Huskies lead the nation in scoring defense and opponent field goal percentage (33.3%). Now the Huskies get to face a UTSA team that finished last in scoring in the American Conference, and I simply don't see any way UTSA keeps up.

While this is a massive spread, it's also important to note that UConn is the second-highest scoring team in the nation, averaging 88.8 points per game. That means UConn's average margin of victory this season was 38.4. UTSA has scored 42 or fewer in four games this season, and it's going to happen again.

🔥 Best UTSA vs. UConn player prop bet

Sarah Strong Over 15.5 (-106)

Playing time will be a huge factor in this blowout, but I love getting Strong three points under her season average of 18.5.

Strong has scored at least 16 points in 22 games this season. She's never scored fewer than 11 points this season, so she comes in with a very high floor and essentially just needs to find five extra points off her bare minimum. 

I could dissect UTSA's defensive numbers, but that would be a waste of time, as the Roadrunners haven't faced a team remotely as good as UConn. Strong is averaging 26.4 minutes per game, and while I expect her to play less in this contest, she has played at least 20 minutes in all but three games this season.

🚀 UTSA vs. UConn same-game parlay

Unfortunately, the only site that is allowing a three-leg parlay for this game is FanDuel, and the spread and total have been adjusted one point against what I'm able to get from DraftKings above. That said, UConn is going to absolutely dominate this game, and Strong and her teammates will score enough to still send this total Over.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting UTSA vs. UConn: Women's March Madness 

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

UConn is the best team in the country, but this spread is so massive, I can't bring myself to bet more than one unit on the Huskies to cover the spread. And while the total seems incredibly low, especially since UConn could score over 100 points in this game, there's also a chance that UTSA doesn't reach 30. Therefore, the Over is also a one-unit play. And while the matchup is great for Strong, she may not see the court enough to reach 16 points, so I'm also only risking one unit on her.

📊 Live UTSA vs. UConn odds: Women's March Madness Round 1

Most sportsbooks haven't shown any movement since the spread opened at 54.5 points, but FanDuel has moved the line to 55.5, so there is a chance that's a sign of things to come for other major platforms. That said, I wouldn't take this any higher than 55.5, as this is already a lot of points. The total has stayed pretty steady, and I wouldn't expect this number to move due to how good UConn is on both sides of the ball.

📈 UTSA vs. UConn betting trends

📺 How to watch UTSA vs. UConn: Women's March Madness Round 1

• Date: Saturday, March 21
• Tipoff: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: Gampel Pavilion (Storrs, Conn.)
• TV: ABC
• Streaming: ESPN+