🏀 UConn vs. Michigan Prediction: Efficiency Trends & 2026 March Madness Championship Picks
Ahead of tonight's national championship game, I looked at the last four NCAA Tournament champs to identify efficiency trends to help with my UConn vs. Michigan prediction.
Why the last four years? Well, NIL changed the landscape of college sports when it was officially approved in July 2021, making the 2021-22 season a natural cutoff for this exercise.
The last four champions (Florida, UConn twice, and Kansas) all had six key efficiency areas in common, but do the Huskies and Wolverines check the boxes?
According to the efficiency trends, there's a clear team to back with your March Madness predictions.
📈 March Madness champion efficiency trends: Last 4 champions
See the latest UConn vs. Michigan odds for the championship game.
| Statistic | Florida (2025) | UConn (2024) | UConn (2023) | Kansas (2022) | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net rating | +36.45 (3rd) | +36.43 (1st) | +29.86 (1st) | +27.49 (3rd) | +32.56 |
| Offensive efficiency | 128.2 (2nd) | 127.5 (1st) | 120.8 (3rd) | 119.2 (6th) | 123.9 |
| eFG% | 54.9% (37th) | 56.9% (7th) | 53.9% (33rd) | 53.8% (29th) | 54.9% |
| TO% | 15.7% (79th) | 14.5% (36th) | 18.9% (236th) | 17.2% (100th) | 16.6% |
| OR% | 38.5% (5th) | 36.7% (12th) | 38.4% (2nd) | 32.9% (40th) | 36.6% |
| FTRate | 34.9% (123rd) | 31.9% (202nd) | 30.8% (201st) | 32.3% (112th) | 32.5% |
| Defensive efficiency | 91.8 (6th) | 91.1 (4th) | 90.9 (7th) | 91.7 (17th) | 91.4 |
| eFG% allowed | 45.5% (6th) | 44.4% (3rd) | 44.4% (5th) | 45.8% (23rd) | 45% |
| Forced TO% | 16.6% (211th) | 16% (252nd) | 18.5% (143rd) | 18.1% (194th) | 17.3% |
| OR% allowed | 29% (138th) | 26.7% (82nd) | 26% (68th) | 28.4% (196th) | 27.5% |
| FTRate allowed | 32.5% (167th) | 31.1% (134th) | 37.8% (313th) | 27.7% (104th) | 32.3% |
🏆️ Championship resume: Efficiency numbers they all have in common
- Top three in net rating (average: +32.56)
- Top six in offensive efficiency (average: 123.9)
- Top 37 in effective field-goal percentage (average: 54.9%)
- Top 40 in offensive rebound rate (average: 36.6%)
- Top 17 in defensive efficiency (average: 91.4)
- Top 23 in effective field-goal percentage allowed (average: 45%)
🐺 UConn efficiency breakdown: Do the Huskies fit the champion profile?
| Statistic | UConn | Championship resume |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | +29.75 (9th) | ❌ (below average in key area) |
| Offensive efficiency | 122.8 (26th) | ❌ (slightly below average in key area) |
| eFG% | 54.8% (45th) | ✅ (average in key area) |
| TO% | 16.5% (163rd) | ✅ (average) |
| OR% | 35.4% (37th) | ✅ (average in key area) |
| FTRate | 30.1% (309th) | ❌ (below average) |
| Defensive efficiency | 93.1 (8th) | ❌ (slightly below average in key area) |
| eFG% allowed | 45.9% (8th) | ✅ (average in key area) |
| Forced TO% | 17.9% (104th) | ✅ (average) |
| OR% allowed | 28.7% (90th) | ✅ (average) |
| FTRate allowed | 40.5% (307th) | ❌ (below average) |
Right off the bat, UConn drops the ball in two of the biggest efficiency metrics that mark a championship-winning team. The Huskies' offensive inconsistencies pull down their overall net rating.
However, UConn has a better net rating than 2022 Kansas and is only slightly behind Dan Hurley's first championship team (2023 UConn) - and its offensive efficiency rating is better than both the Jayhawks' and the '23 Huskies'.
But if you dig a little deeper into the stats, there is reason for concern when it comes to 3-point shooting.
Both Kansas and UConn shot better than 36% from behind the arc in their championship season, and while this year's UConn team is only slightly behind that (34.6%), the Huskies are hitting just 31% from deep in the NCAA Tournament. '22 Kansas and '23 UConn both stepped up their long game in the NCAA Tournament and hit better than 39% during their championship runs.
Something else to be somewhat concerned about is the fact that UConn's defense isn't necessarily elite. It's one of the 10 best in the country, but the difference between great and elite matters when it comes to championships, especially with an offense that's clearly a step behind recent champs like '25 Florida and '24 UConn.
And even during this championship run, UConn's defense has remained at about the same level that it's been all season. The Huskies are No. 9 in defensive efficiency (92.4) and No. 17 in effective field-goal percentage allowed (47.3%) during the NCAA Tournament.
〽️ Michigan efficiency breakdown: Do the Wolverines fit the champion profile?
| Statistic | Michigan | Championship resume |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | +39.72 (1st) | ✅ (historically dominant in key area) |
| Offensive efficiency | 128.4 (4th) | ✅ (above average in key area) |
| eFG% | 58.8% (6th) | ✅ (above average in key area) |
| TO% | 16.4% (160th) | ✅ (average) |
| OR% | 34.7% (55th) | ❌ (slightly below average in key area) |
| FTRate | 37.7% (109th) | ✅ (above average) |
| Defensive efficiency | 88.7 (1st) | ✅ (above average in key area) |
| eFG% allowed | 44.8% (1st) | ✅ (average in key area) |
| Forced TO% | 15.1% (277th) | ❌ (below average) |
| OR% allowed | 27.7% (54th) | ✅ (average) |
| FTRate allowed | 26.1 (15th) | ✅ (above average) |
On paper, Michigan clearly fits the profile of a March Madness champion.
The Wolverines aren't just above average in the most important area for a champion, but they have the highest net rating in the history of KenPom. Since KenPom began tracking advanced stats in 1997, 24 of 28 national champions finished top three in net rating, and 14 of the last 25 finished No. 1.
Michigan's net rating is astronomically high because it has the best defense in the country paired with one of the most efficient offenses in the sport. And it's only been better in the NCAA Tournament.
Dusty May's team has been putting up a 63.4% effective field-goal percentage and hitting 44.5% from 3-point range during March Madness on its way to becoming the first team to score 90-plus points in five tournament games.
The one key area Michigan misses on in terms of hitting the average of the last four champions is offensive rebound rate.
But the Wolverines are only 1.9% below the average, and part of the reason is that when you shoot so efficiently, there aren't many rebounds to be had (Michigan is top five nationally in defensive rebounds and defensive rebounds allowed per game).
The only other area they don't hit at least average is forced turnovers; however, what Michigan lacks in steals (No. 303 in steals per game), it makes up for in shot blocking (No. 2 in blocks per game).
The Wolverines are on another level.
🔮 UConn vs. Michigan prediction
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Efficiency trends say: Michigan
The last two No. 1-ranked teams in net rating to play for the national championship game both won in blowouts. '24 UConn beat Purdue by 15, and '23 UConn beat San Diego State by 17.
The efficiency trends imply that tonight could see a similar outcome, this time with the Huskies on the losing end.
And while you can point to that San Diego State team as an outlier opponent in the championship game, the Purdue team that lost by more than two touchdowns had a higher net rating than this year's UConn team.
This Wolverines squad is one win away from going down as one of the best in college basketball history, and as someone who relies on advanced stats over narrative (Hurley magic and UConn's history of outperforming its seed), my UConn vs. Michigan prediction is backing Michigan to cover and win a sixth straight tournament game by double digits.
✅ Best bet: Michigan -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
🥈 March Madness runner-up efficiency trends: Last 4 national runners-up
| Statistic | Houston (2025) | Purdue (2024) | San Diego State (2023) | North Carolina (2022) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net rating | +36.59 (2nd) | +30.62 (3rd) | +20.34 (14th) | +20.13 (16th) |
| Offensive efficiency | 123.4 (12th) | 125.2 (4th) | 110.8 (75th) | 114.4 (18th) |
| eFG% | 51.7% (124th) | 55.8% (13th) | 49.3% (238th) | 51.5% (105th) |
| TO% | 14.2% (19th) | 16.4% (142nd) | 17.3% (109th) | 16.4% (53rd) |
| OR% | 36.9% (11th) | 37.7% (7th) | 31.6% (82nd) | 31.9% (59th) |
| FTRate | 27.2% (329th) | 41.3% (13th) | 33.2% (112th) | 30.3% (175th) |
| Defensive efficiency | 86.8 (1st) | 94.6 (12th) | 90.4 (4th) | 94.3 (35th) |
| eFG% allowed | 44.8% (3rd) | 47.5% (39th) | 46.5% (20th) | 48.6% (114th) |
| Forced TO% | 20.9% (24th) | 13.7% (343rd) | 19.1% (115th) | 13.6% (356th) |
| OR% allowed | 28.6% (116th) | 24.3% (17th) | 26.1% (70th) | 21.6% (2nd) |
| FTRate allowed | 34.2% (216th) | 22% (4th) | 30.2% (155th) | 21.4% (8th) |
📊 Live UConn vs. Michigan odds: National championship
See the latest March Madness odds for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
📺 How to watch UConn vs. Michigan: 2026 National championship
- Date: Monday, April 6
- Tipoff: 8:50 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: HBO Max
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