🏀 UCLA vs. UConn Prediction & Picks: March Madness Second Round (March 22)

Two of college basketball's most storied programs meet for the right to go to the Sweet 16 in an East Region March Madness showdown that pits No. 7 seed UCLA against No. 2 seed UConn. The game tips from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia at 8:45 p.m. ET, airing on TNT. The Huskies are 4.5-point betting favorites.

My UCLA vs. UConn prediction as part of our March Madness predictions expect the underdog Bruins to make this a close game. And amid the various injury news concerning both teams, my top player prop pick is built around UConn center Tarris Reed, who is completely healthy and not on any injury reports.

🏀 UCLA vs. UConn picks & odds: March Madness Second Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.73 units

🏆 Who will win UCLA vs. UConn?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

These two teams played on Friday, a day in which favorites finished 16-0 SU (and 12-4 ATS). That was just the second day in NCAA tournament favorites went undefeated in the Round of 64, and the first since 1992. Thus, while I expect oddsmakers to overvalue favorites today, I see more value in UCLA's point spread, but am expecting a close UConn victory.

Score prediction: UConn 71, UCLA 69

💰 UCLA vs. UConn prediction & best bet

UCLA +4.5 (-115)

UCLA’s offense and how it utilizes pick-and-roll with standout point guard Donovan Dent is structured very similarly to an inferior Big East opponent in Providence that shredded the Huskies defense for 1.12 and 1.19 points per possession this season.

The Bruins offense entered the tournament playing at a top-10 level over the last month. It is no secret why UCLA’s offense is humming, as Dent has an unfathomable 13.8 assist-to-turnover ratio over his last nine games.

For as many eye-popping tournament trends Dan Hurley has, UCLA had a solid 60% cover rate against ranked opponents this season.

🔥 Best UCLA vs. UConn player prop bet

Tarris Reed Over 16.5 points (-105)

Over the last month, UCLA is a poor rim-protecting defense, ranking in the bottom-200 in 2-point percentage allowed. It was not exposed by UCF, who made just 37.5% of its 2-point attempts in Friday’s loss, as the Knights entered as the 287th 2-point offense in that same previous month stretch.

Interior defense has been such a concern for Mick Cronin that he switched to a zone defense for large stretches. But no matter how the Bruins choose to defend the Huskies, this sets up as a big game for Tarris Reed, who has exceeded this projected total in three of the last four games. He is also coming off a season-high 31 against Furman.

🚀 UCLA vs. UConn same-game parlay

If UConn's Tarris Reed exceeds his projected points total, that helps the full-game Over cash as well. But UCLA can just as easily stay within this number even if Reed goes off, as long as it dices up a leaky UConn defense that allowed 71 points to Furman in Friday's win.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting UCLA vs. UConn: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

UConn is no longer invincible from an ATS perspective, as its record 14-game NCAA Tournament cover streak (the longest for any team since 1979) came to an end with a non-cover against Furman. Yes, Dan Hurley is still 17-4 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, the highest ATS win percentage for a coach (min. 10 games) in the seeding era since 1979. But oddsmakers are well aware of these trends also, so I am on the contrarian side on what should be an overlooked Bruins team.

I'll be waiting as long as possible to see if Bruins leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau is declared active before backing the Bruins. If he isn't, and this line doesn't balloon to +6.5 or higher, UCLA then becomes a no-play.

📊 Live UCLA vs. UConn odds: March Madness Second Round

Though there is currently a one-point gap between the low end (UConn -3.5 at DraftKings) and high end (-4.5 at FanDuel) of the market on the point spread, the line movement suggests the public is already lining up to back the favorites. Sixty-one percent of the early wagers are on UConn, and that number may only grow if UCLA gets more bad injury news about Tyler Bilodeau.

The total is a much more sharp line in comparison, as all top sports betting sites are in unison at 136.5. But based on the 62% of the wagers backing the Over, we could see a move to 137 or higher before long.

📈 UCLA vs. UConn betting trends

📺 How to watch UCLA vs. UConn: March Madness Second Round

• Date: Sunday, March 22
• Tipoff: 8:45 p.m. ET
• Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena (Philadelphia)
• TV: TNT
• Streaming: HBO Max