🏀 UCLA vs. UConn Prediction, Prop & Parlay Tonight: Round 2 March Madness Best Bets
Two of college basketball's most decorated programs collide Sunday night when No. 7 UCLA takes on No. 2 UConn in a Round of 32 clash at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia (8:45 p.m. ET, TNT). The injury report heading into this one is every bit as compelling as the matchup itself.
In my UCLA vs. UConn prediction and parlay, I'm siding with the Bruins to keep the Huskies honest against the 4.5-point spread. Both programs arrive banged up and carrying unresolved questions. UCLA's leading scorer, Tyler Bilodeau, who averages 17.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and shoots a team-best 46.4% from three, is listed as questionable after sitting out Round 1.
Read on for our best UCLA vs. UConn March Madness predictions.
๐ UCLA vs. UConn picks & odds tonight
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA +4.5 | -115 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.87u | โญโญโญ |
| Over 136.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.91u | โญโญโญ |
| Tarris Reed Over 16.5 points | -105 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.95u | โญโญโญโญ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.73 units
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๐บ How to watch UCLA vs. UConn: March Madness Second Round
- Date: Sunday, March 22
- Tipoff: 8:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena (Philadelphia)
- TV: TNT
- Streaming: HBO Max
- Spread: UConn -4.5 (-110)
- Total: 136.5
๐ Who will win UCLA vs. UConn?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
These two teams played on Friday, a day on which favorites finished 16-0 SU (and 12-4 ATS). That was just the second day in NCAA Tournament history that favorites went undefeated in the Round of 64, and the first since 1992.
Thus, while I expect oddsmakers to overvalue favorites today, I see more value in UCLA's point spread, but I am expecting a close UConn victory.
🩹 Tyler Bilodeau injury status
It remains unknown whether UCLA's leading scorer, Tyler Bilodeau, will play tonight's game after being ruled out of UCLA's tournament-opening game due to a knee injury. Xavier Booker could be expected to see an increased role once again.
Score prediction: UConn 71, UCLA 69
๐ฐ UCLA vs. UConn prediction & best bet
UCLA +4.5 (-115)
UCLAโs offense and how it utilizes pick-and-roll with standout point guard Donovan Dent is structured very similarly to an inferior Big East opponent in Providence that shredded the Huskies defense for 1.12 and 1.19 points per possession this season.
The Bruins' offense entered the tournament playing at a top-10 level over the last month. It is no secret why UCLAโs offense is humming, as Dent has an unfathomable 13.8 assist-to-turnover ratio over his last nine games.
For as many eye-popping tournament trends as Dan Hurley has, UCLA had a solid 60% cover rate against ranked opponents this season.
๐ฅ Best UCLA vs. UConn player prop bet
Tarris Reed Over 16.5 points (-105)
Over the last month, UCLA has been a poor rim-protecting defense, ranking in the bottom-200 in 2-point percentage allowed. It was not exposed by UCF, which made just 37.5% of its 2-point attempts in Fridayโs loss, as the Knights entered as the 287th 2-point offense in that same previous month stretch.
Interior defense has been such a concern for Mick Cronin that he switched to a zone defense for large stretches. But no matter how the Bruins choose to defend the Huskies, this sets up as a big game for Tarris Reed, who has exceeded this projected total in three of the last four games. He is also coming off a season-high 31 against Furman.
๐ UCLA vs. UConn same-game parlay
If UConn's Tarris Reed exceeds his projected points total, that helps the full-game Over cash as well. But UCLA can just as easily stay within this number even if Reed goes off, as long as it dices up a leaky UConn defense that allowed 71 points to Furman in Friday's win.
💵 UCLA vs. UConn SGP picks
- UCLA +4.5 (-110)
- Over 136.5 (-110)
- Tarris Reed Over 16.5 points (-105)
Best odds: +612 via bet365 (1u -> 6.12u)
๐ต My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 42-42 | +12.71 units โ | +15.5% โ |
| Game picks | 28-27 | +10.54 units โ | +188% โ |
| Player props | 14-13 | +4.17 units โ | +15.5% โ |
๐ก How I'm betting UCLA vs. UConn: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
UConn is no longer invincible from an ATS perspective, as its record 14-game NCAA Tournament cover streak (the longest for any team since 1979) came to an end with a non-cover against Furman. Yes, Dan Hurley is still 17-4 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, the highest ATS win percentage for a coach (min. 10 games) in the seeding era since 1979. But oddsmakers are also well aware of these trends, so I am on the contrarian side on what should be an overlooked Bruins team.
I'll be waiting as long as possible to see if Bruins leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau is declared active before backing the Bruins. If he isn't, and this line doesn't balloon to +6.5 or higher, UCLA then becomes a no-play.
UCLA vs. UConn tale of the tape
Stats from Rob Paul's March Madness betting guide prior to the start of the NCAA Tournament:
| UCLA | UConn | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-17 ATS | 17-17 O/U | Betting records | 13-21 ATS | 16-18 O/U |
| No. 27 (+21.67 AdjEM) | KenPom ranking | No. 11 (+27.87 AdjEM) |
| Mick Cronin (career record: 526-246 | MM ATS record: 15-14 since 2006-07) | Coach | Dan Hurley (career record: 345-179 | MM ATS record: 17-3) |
| Donovan Dent, G (13.5 PPG, 7.6 APG, 1.6 SPG) | Best player | Silas Demary Jr., G (10.9 PPG, 6.2 APG, 1.6 SPG) |
| Since the beginning of March, UCLA is top 10 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (133.4) | Key stat | Hurley has the best cover rate of any coach in the NCAA Tournament this year (85%), according to my March Madness betting trends breakdown |
| Dent has as 13-to-1 assist to turnover ratio in his last eight games | Fun fact | In the last 15 years, only three non-top two seeds have won the NCAA Tournament, and all three were UConn teams (No. 3 seed in 2011, No. 7 seed in 2014, and No. 4 seed in 2023) |
๐ Live UCLA vs. UConn odds: March Madness Second Round
Though there is currently a one-point gap between the low end (UConn -3.5 at DraftKings) and high end (-4.5 at FanDuel) of the market on the point spread, the line movement suggests the public is already lining up to back the favorites. Sixty-one percent of the early wagers are on UConn, and that number may only grow if UCLA gets more bad injury news about Tyler Bilodeau.
The total is a much sharper line in comparison, as all top sports betting sites are in unison at 136.5. But based on the 62% of the wagers backing the Over, we could see a move to 137 or higher before long.
๐ UCLA vs. UConn betting trends
| UCLA | Statistic | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| 24-11 | Record | 30-5 |
| 17-18 | ATS record | 13-22 |
| 17-18 | O/U record | 17-18 |
| 28th | KenPom ranking | 11th |
| 123.2 (22nd) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 122.2 (30th) |
| 101.5 (48th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 94.6 (13th) |
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See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
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