UC Irvine vs. Cal Poly College Basketball Picks: Anteaters Heavily Favored in 2022 Rematch

UC Irvine Unders have been one of the most automatic bets in college basketball this season, but its Thursday matchup features a comically low total at the major sportsbooks. Check out our UC Irvine-Cal Poly college basketball picks.

It may not be the most marquee matchup ever featured on SBR, but UC Irvine-Cal Poly features the potential to finish with a total lower than the Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills NFL playoff game, so it was simply too fascinating for me to ignore. While UC Irvine has operated as one of the most prolific kings of Unders in college basketball this season, its opponent for Thursday, Cal Poly, has one of the slowest tempos and least efficient offenses in the country.

It’s a recipe for a beautiful disaster out West.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s college basketball matchup between UC Irvine and Cal Poly (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UC Irvine vs. Cal Poly Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, March 3, 10 p.m. ETTV: ESPN+Location: Robert A. Mott Gymnasium, San Luis Obispo, CA

UC Irvine vs. Cal Poly Odds Analysis

UC Irvine opened as a 9.5-point favorite and has seen money flowing to its side to push that line to 10 (DraftKings) or 10.5 (FanDuel). The Anteaters aren’t a major offensive force, so their 9-11-1 record against the spread this season doesn’t come as a big surprise. Cal Poly has actually been slightly better against the spread, coming in at 12-12 ATS.

The total opened at an obscenely low 119.5, and has actually risen to 122 at DraftKings and 122.5 at FanDuel. On the year, Irvine has gone 5-14-2 on the Over. Cal Poly games have cashed the Over at a record of 10-14.

UC Irvine vs. Cal Poly Picks

UC Irvine -10 (-120 via DraftKings) ????Under 122.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ?????

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UC Irvine vs. Cal Poly Predictions

UC Irvine -10 (-120)

UC Irvine won 14 of its last 15 games against Cal Poly, and there’s been no evidence presented this season that would suggest that trend is about to be broken on Thursday. Cal Poly ranks No. 314 overall in the KenPom rankings, and the Mustangs fall in at No. 347 in adjusted offensive efficiency. That’s a dozen spots from the literal rock bottom worst offensive team in college basketball (congrats to IUPUI for that distinction).

Irvine doesn’t have an otherworldly offense, and all this talk about its ability to cash Unders is for good reason, as Irvine’s defense ranks 29th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Throw in the fact that Cal Poly plays a slower tempo than Irvine’s glacial 292nd-ranked pace, and you have a team that flat-out is not equipped to deal with any sort of deficit.

The Anteaters are going to win this game, it’s just a matter of the margin.

When the pair met up on Jan. 29 at Irvine, the home team won it 72-48. While that information is relatively instructive for our pick on the total, it’s more informative on expectations for the outcome on the point spread. Though we should adjust our expectations somewhat based on Cal Poly getting the rematch at home, I simply don’t consider its bottom-barrel offense capable of scoring on the Anteaters regardless of game location.

Give me UC Irvine by 12-16 points.

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Under 122.5 (-114)

It’s time for the main event! UC Irvine has been sensational for Unders all season long at 14-5-2. Its 7-2-2 record on the Under in road games is a figure that I like for Thursday’s affair. Cal Poly games have trended Under, as well. That trend remains intact for Mustangs’ home games at 5-3 to the Under this year. Though the opening line of 119.5 might have been a bit too close for comfort to lock in a confident play on the Under, the line movement has worked in our favor.

As mentioned above, the 72-48 final in round one between Irvine and Poly gave the contest 120 points. Generally, it should be more difficult for Irvine to score into the 70s on the road Thursday. At the same time, when I stare at the abysmal efficiency metrics for Cal Poly, along with the reality that neither team plans to push the pace in this game, I just don’t see it. Even at home, I don’t see the Mustangs scoring all that much more than the 48 points they put up the last time they saw the Anteaters. I’m expecting a script that finds UC Irvine in the mid-60s, with Cal Poly celebrating its achievement of reaching 50 points in the game.

This is one of the worst offenses in college basketball against one of the top defenses, and two of the slowest teams in the sport. Line movement that benefits our lean? Life’s too short to bet Unders, unless you’re doing it for this Big West clash on Thursday.

Where to Bet on College Basketball

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UC Irvine-Cal Poly picks made 3/3/2022 at 1:35 p.m. ET.